Curry’s groundbreaking numbers and other top fantasy takeaways
This week’s contributors are ESPN NBA Insider Bradford Doolittle and ESPN Fantasy analysts Jim McCormick and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
Doolittle: Karl-Anthony Towns is amazing.
McCormick: This season I found the relationship between DFS research and redraft success is incredibly valuable — which is to say, I found my growing passion for DFS NBA significantly aided my redraft rosters by taking the league to the granular level. Instantly recognizing surges in minutes and usage for various players around the league led me to influential season-long shares of Devin Booker and Will Barton, to name a few. Even if you are just dabbling in GPPs, I found having a presence in DFS to be extremely helpful for redraft management.
Carpenter: Every once in a while a player changes the landscape of what we can expect from the statistical elite. I’ve worn out my thesaurus trying to describe Stephen Curry‘s campaign. Maybe the best way to describe his greatness in fantasy terms is that Kevin Durant is having what normally would be the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy campaign this season – ranking No. 2 on the Player Rater at 17.46 – yet, Curry not only is ahead of Durant, but ahead by a country mile at 21.31 (the difference is exactly what Andrew Wiggins has produced on the PR this season). Let’s hope that Anthony Davis can follow Curry’s footsteps and get over his early-career health issues, because he has the potential to reshape big man fantasy stats at some point down the line, especially if he can get comfortable beyond the arc.
Doolittle: C.J. McCollum. Sure, there are a lot of technical explanations for why he and Damian Lillard have proved to be such a lethal backcourt despite a number of overlapping skills. And there was a little bit of foreshadowing that we might have spotted in McCollum’s production last season after Wesley Matthews was injured. But, still, for 24-year-old player to make this kind of one-season leap is stunning. He tripled his minutes, more than tripled his scoring average, doubled his assist rate, went from 20 to 27 percent usage, and still managed to post a league-average true shooting percentage. All this while being the No. 2 option on a top-10 offense. Amazing.
McCormick: I would say Karl-Anthony Towns. I was fairly aggressive in pursuit of shares this season, but never expected him to replicate Tim Duncan‘s elite rookie effort (the comparison is uncanny using per-36 rates) — with 3-point production and free throw efficiency as a bonus. I believed KAT to be special, but he’s generational and worthy of a first-round pick next fall. Among guards, I was admittedly surprised by Kemba Walker essentially matching Dame Lillard as a valuable volume-driven commodity this season.
Carpenter: Kyle Lowry. I have been a doubter throughout most of his fantasy career, which often put me in the minority. His shoddy FG% year in and year out combined with a habit of missing long stretches of action due to injuries countered the relatively limited upside he brought in scoring, dimes, 3s and steals. Well, he showed up in terrific shape, missed just two games and racked up career-highs in scoring (by 3.7 PPG), steals (by 0.5 SPG) and 3s (by 0.3 3-PPG), while posting his highest field goal percentage since 2008-09. He surely proved me wrong this season. However, since he just turned 30 and is showing signs of wear (he had his elbow drained recently), I likely will remain somewhat skeptical about him going forward simply due to health concerns.
Doolittle: Derrick Rose. Injuries are a big part of his story, but even accounting for those, his game has atrophied. He’s had to change the way he plays, but the problem is he’s not effective at it, at least not in any impactful way. He just was never able to develop the skillset to be effective as a player who doesn’t dominate physically. The only stretch in which Rose really put up All-Star-like counting numbers came in February when Jimmy Butler was injured, and even then it was mostly empty production. It’s reached the point that the more the Bulls rely on Rose, the worse they seem to do. My hopes for him are more or less extinguished.
McCormick: Serge Ibaka comes to mind — he was drafted in the second and third rounds in most leagues and continued to lose luster in boards and blocks throughout the season. Even 3-point production took a hit, leaving investors wanting more.
Carpenter: Danny Green. He is in the small club of players who are capable of chipping in at least a steal and block to go with big 3-point production, plus some quality rebounding for a role player. In fact, during the previous two seasons, Green was the perfect under-the-radar player you could get at good value spot in drafts to round out your starting lineup. Yet, for some reason, Green, who had averaged no worse than 43.6 FG% and 41.5 3-FG% in any of his past four seasons, is averaging an embarrassing 37.7 FG% and 33.4 3-FG% this campaign. It’s been a disastrous mess from beginning to end and leaves me shaking my head at what could have been.
Doolittle: JV’s game has inched upwards each season he’s been in the league and he’s still only 23. So I think he’s got more pro rata production than this. But context is everything for Valanciunas. He’s got to develop his body and maximize his mobility to the point that the Raptors are a markedly better team defensively when he’s on the court. Otherwise, his minutes will never reach the level to where he can become an upper-tier fantasy option. This season he has played better, but even on a per-game basis, he hasn’t played more. That said, if Toronto loses DeMar DeRozan in free agency, then the Kyle Lowry-Valanciunas pick-and-roll is going to be the staple of the Toronto offense.
McCormick: Valanciunas has a higher offensive ceiling than his line this season, but his ability to reach it remains compromised by enduring durability concerns. This is a gifted young big, but with such a high-usage, ball-dominant backcourt in Toronto, it’s not easy to envision a true breakout for next season. To be honest, I bet someone else in most of my drafts next year will like him more and trust the upside more than I do.
Carpenter: I think it is clear that Valanciunas is not some sort of transcendent player around whom the Raptors need to build their offense. He doesn’t have that type of weaponry in his arsenal. That means that his fantasy value will depend entirely on how many shots he ends up earning, depending on how the Raptors’ roster fleshes out over the summer. If DeRozan leaves as a free agent and the Raps don’t replace him with another impact offensive weapon, it’s entirely possible that they will give Valanciunas 12-13 FGA per game and he could score in the upper teens with 10 RPG and 1.5 BPG.
Doolittle: Maybe Sean Kilpatrick but even with him, I’d be leery. The problem with these late-season rag-tag rotations is that on any given night, some emergent D-Leaguer can have a big night given the minutes and touches. But there is no consistency and in reality, you’re just drawing names out of a hat. Worse, if you pick up a Nets player, then you actually have to pay at least some attention to the Nets’ games and that in itself is too painful of an experience to put yourself through so late in the campaign.
McCormick: Shane Larkin doesn’t have shooting guard eligibility, but he’s still proving quite helpful with increased exposure to end the season. Thomas Robinson can help with strong rebounding rates, while Sean Kilpatrick can support those seeking 3-point production. It’s an ugly finish for Brooklyn, but at least there are some helpful assets to pursue and they get a high lottery pick — oh wait, Billy King!
Carpenter: Thomas Robinson is available in nearly 80 percent of all leagues and has averaged 13.3 PPG and 12.8 RPG over his past four outings. He is worth a look if you need rebounding. Beyond Robinson, it’s tough to lean on anyone, since the Nets don’t have a particularly friendly schedule the rest of the way – at WAS, at CHA, at IND, vs. WAS, vs. TOR – unless those teams rest starters. I’d like to believe Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will play enough to help you in steals, but he hasn’t topped 20 minutes in a game since returning to action.