Corey Kluber well worth the risk as Rangers build strong rotation
Last season, the Texas Rangers used 19 different starting pitchers, with only rotation stalwarts Mike Minor and Lance Lynn starting more than 18 games. Even with stellar years from Minor and Lynn, Texas ranked 12th in the American League in rotation ERA. In 2018, the Rangers used 15 different starting pitchers, didn’t have a single starter qualify for the ERA title and ranked 14th in the AL in rotation ERA.
As the Rangers prepare to move into shiny new Globe Life Field for 2020, the offseason priority was to improve and stabilize the starting rotation. On Sunday, they acquired two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber from the Cleveland Indians for center fielder Delino DeShields and 21-year-old right-handed reliever Emmanuel Clase, who recorded a 2.31 ERA in 23⅓ innings with the Rangers and ranked as the team’s No. 30 prospect, according to MLB.com.
Kluber made just seven starts last season, missing most of the season with a broken forearm after getting hitting by a line drive on May 1 and then suffering a strained oblique on a rehab assignment in August. Before the injury, Kluber was hit hard, allowing 44 hits in 35⅔ innings and posting a 5.80 ERA. Still, it feels like a shockingly low return for a pitcher who won the 2017 Cy Young Award and finished third in the 2018 voting. It essentially amounts to a salary dump by the Indians, with Kluber set to earn $17.5 million this season with an $18 million club option for 2021.
Given that Kluber’s injuries weren’t structural, it certainly is a worthwhile gamble for the Rangers. If he’s bad again, the commitment is only for one season. Having already signed free agents Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, the Rangers can run a top five of Minor, Lynn, Kluber, Gibson and Lyles, with Kolby Allard, Brock Burke and Ariel Jurado in reserve. If Kluber bounces back, and Minor (7.8 bWAR, 4.2 fWAR) and Lynn (7.6 bWAR, 6.8 fWAR) repeat their career seasons or at least come close, this has the potential to be one of the better rotations in the league.
Kluber must be viewed as a question mark, however, and even if the Indians really like Clase, the return suggests there wasn’t much interest out there in Kluber, and teams weren’t willing to give up much value in addition to absorbing his salary. DeShields is a plus defender in center but owns a career 76 OPS+, including 72 last season, which ranked 201st out of 207 batters with at least 400 plate appearances. He’s hardly the solution to Cleveland’s search for outfield help, and DeShields/Clase is far less of a return than the Indians would have received last offseason, when they were also shopping Kluber and may have received a package from the Dodgers that included Alex Verdugo.
A big reason for the concern about Kluber’s production moving forward is his declining velocity:
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