Checking in on the NFL MVP race: Josh Allen a strong value
The Buffalo Bills are -400 favorites in the AFC East, which was expected to be much more competitive than it’s current form. Both the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots have quarterback issues, so it sure looks like the Bills will circle the wagons fairly easily.
As I laid out last week, 11 of the last 14 MVP winners were a QB from a one- or two-seed. So while certain players like betting favorite Kyler Murray (+600) and Lamar Jackson (20-1) are dynamic playmakers who will post impressive stats, I do not view them as realistic candidates. Ultimately, like it or not, voters will typically reward the QB of an elite team, so we must account for that in our handicapping process.
NFL: Super Bowl odds and win totals
NFL: Notable bets from Week 3 action
NFL: Bills QB Allen has strong MVP value
CFB: Everything you need for CFB season
CFB: SP+ win total projections
NBA: Nets open as 2021-22 favorites
MLB: Best bets for the second half
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ESPN Chalk home
With already having a road win in Miami, the Bills should finish 6-0 or 5-1 in division play. The road slate does pose three legitimate tests: Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Winning at least one of those would likely result in a final record of 13-4 or so. That should be good enough for a top seed, especially with Kansas City starting 1-2 this year.
September is usually a good time to grab an attractive Super Bowl future, capitalizing on the fact that many past winners peaked later in the season. While the Green Bay Packers (13-1) do interest me a bit, I see another option that is worth a wager.
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How about 6-1 odds that the Las Vegas Raiders finish in last place in the AFC West? This is a great opportunity to emulate a stock market approach of selling high. First of all, they currently reside in what might be the league’s toughest division so this is not a total attack. I just believe more in the division’s other undefeated team (Denver Broncos), the Super Bowl betting favorite (Kansas City Chiefs), and a rising contender (Los Angeles Chargers).
Let’s not forget Las Vegas trailed Baltimore 14-0 in the opener and also needed a miracle FG drive at the end of regulation. Winning at Pittsburgh is no longer a crowning achievement and defeating the Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa at home is not all that impressive. Frankly, they might only be favored in five of their remaining 14 games.
There’s a lot to like with the Raiders but 6-1 in that division is enough for me to pull the trigger.