Bowl game overreactions: Why Ole Miss and Notre Dame are going to take a leap next season
More Teams. More Games.
Kansas State’s head coach and quarterback enjoy a huge Pop-Tart after winning the inaugural Pop-Tarts Bowl. (0:45)
The college football postseason is nearly over, and you know what that means. It’s time to get ahead of ourselves and start thinking about next season. Which teams are doomed, and which teams are poised to take advantage of the new, expanded playoff format? Who should we expect to win the Heisman? Does bowl season stink now, or will it be better next year than it’s ever been before?
Let’s overreact.
The Lane Train is rolling into 2024 as Ole Miss will have legitimate aspirations to make its first-ever CFP appearance. Even before the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, the Rebels were having a very good December, as arguably no team had been a bigger winner in adding transfers and keeping top players. The Rebels added notable intra-SEC transfers like Texas A&M defensive lineman Walter Nolen, Tennessee edge Tyler Baron, Florida edge Princely Umanmielen, Mississippi State cornerback Decamerion Richardson and South Carolina wide receiver Antwane “Juice” Wells.
Ole Miss then thrashed Penn State 38-25 in Atlanta, holding a double-digit lead for most of the second half. Quarterback Jaxson Dart, who will return to Ole Miss this coming season, lit up the nation’s No. 1 defense for 379 pass yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Caden Prieskorn and wide receiver Tre Harris, who also are both coming back to Lane Kiffin’s offense, combined for 17 receptions and 270 receiving yards. The Rebels suffered a blow Thursday when star running back Quinshon Judkins announced he would enter the portal, but the overall personnel picture is good. Coach Kiffin’s addition of defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been essential both on the field and in recruiting. After a year where Kiffin quieted some chatter about his inability to win the biggest games, he will enter a season with his most talented and experienced team, and a chance to make history. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State lost 14-3 against Missouri in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and were held to 106 yards passing and 97 yards rushing. The Buckeyes did that without quarterback Kyle McCord, who transferred to Syracuse, star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who opted out of the game as he makes his way to the NFL, and a handful of others.
The Ohio State staff saw safeties Cameron Martinez and Kye Stokes enter the transfer portal, as well as corner Jyaire Brown. It’s easy to say the game only went the way it did because Ohio State didn’t have its top options at quarterback and receiver, but the Cotton Bowl was a glimpse at what the roster will look like in 2024 if no changes are made.
Freshman quarterback Lincoln Kienholz completed 6 of 17 passes for 86 yards and no touchdowns, while Devin Brown completed 4 of 6 for 20 yards before getting hurt. The staff has ESPN 300 quarterback Air Noland coming in with the 2024 recruiting class, but it will be his first season on campus.
Noland very likely could end up being a star in Ryan Day’s offense, but it might not be realistic to expect him to break out in Year 1. The staff got a transfer commitment from Kansas State quarterback transfer Will Howard on Thursday. Adding Howard allows Noland to develop while giving Ohio State a capable quarterback who has already proven he can be efficient and successful at this level.
The staff has lost 12 players to the transfer portal and is yet to add any to the roster. The offense loses McCord, Harrison, Julian Fleming, and could lose receiver Emeka Egbuka and running back TreVeyon Henderson to the NFL.
That is a lot of production to replace in one offseason and without any portal additions. Howard is a big get for the staff, but adding in more up front along the offensive line would help get the team to where it needs to be in 2024. — Tom VanHaaren
There was a lot of criticism of bowl season this year due to the dozens of high profile opt-outs, hundreds of players in the portal, and marquee matchups that didn’t deliver because only a shell of a team showed up to play. But one thing bowls still get right is the ridiculousness of it all — the pageantry, the humor, the fun and, of course, the giant toasters.
No bowl game outside the playoff generated more enthusiasm than the Pop-Tarts Bowl, not because of anything to do with the teams involved, but because of the sheer absurdity of seeing a giant anthropomorphic Pop-Tart frolicking in the background of every camera shot, all while waiting to be eaten by the winning team. Add that to the delight of the Dukes Mayo Bowl’s mayo pour, the creepiness of Cheez-It king lording over his bowl or the Tax Act Texas Bowl having both starting QBs file their 1040 EZ during halftime (OK, that didn’t happen — but it should!). If we’re losing the on-field gravitas of bowls, let’s lean in on all the off-field zaniness and capering. If GoBowling.com is sponsoring a bowl, the winning coach should get bowled into a champagne celebration. The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl should let the winning team go swimming in a giant cereal bowl. The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl ought to give all fans in attendance one opportunity per year to order a No. 2 meal on a Sunday. — David Hale
To Hale’s point, the members of the “too many bowls” industrial complex seized on the Orange Bowl as an example of all that is Very Bad. And that was a very bad game. But starting next year, in a 12-team field, nearly the entire Top 25 will be playing in a meaningful postseason game. That leaves the smaller bowls that will still be meaningful to those teams, with history on the line.
Western Kentucky star quarterback Austin Reed opted out of the Famous Toastery Bowl and the Hilltoppers trailed 28-0 until freshman Caden Veltkamp threw for 383 yards and rallied them for the fourth-biggest bowl comeback of all time in a 38-35 OT win over Old Dominion. Players threw toast in the air in celebration.
Jacksonville State got a waiver to play in the New Orleans Bowl because it was the program’s first season in FBS, and then beat Louisiana in overtime for the Gamecocks’ first-ever FBS bowl win. Coach Rich Rodriguez gave his players an extra night to celebrate in New Orleans.
There were one-score games in the Quick Lane (Minnesota 30, Bowling Green 24), Camellia (Northern Illinois 21, Arkansas State 19) and Arizona (Wyoming 16, Toledo 15) Bowls, with Wyoming sending retiring coach Craig Bohl out a winner. Texas State won its first bowl game in history with a win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl and drank the stadium dry in the process, then stormed the field. At a bowl game.
It’s not just for the little guys, either. Kentucky and Clemson combined for 42 points in the fourth quarter of the Gator Bowl, including the Tigers scoring a game-winning touchdown with 17 seconds left. What else would you rather be doing on a Friday morning on Dec. 29?
The small bowls may not mean anything to you, but they do to the players and coaches who get one last chance to play together. And for fans: Who hates extra football every day of the week when you’d be talking to your in-laws instead? Who hates fun? Who hates edible mascots and a flood of memes afterward? Who hates trophies? Who hates making snow angels in toast? — Dave Wilson
Let’s not talk problems. Let’s talk solutions. As the playoff expands and devalues the rest of the bowls to a certain extent, it’s baffling that we haven’t had a serious discussion about a playoff for teams from the Group of 5. In this era, there is a bigger gulf between Group of 5 schools and Power 5 — Power 4? — schools than ever, so we should stop pretending they should be considered the same division of college football. Based on what we saw in the Fiesta Bowl, Liberty would have lost to Oregon approximately 100 times out of 100. That’s not a team that would have belonged in a 12-team playoff. It makes no sense that teams in every tier of football now — NFL, Power 5, FCS, NCAA Division II, NCAA Division III, NAIA, various enrollment levels in high school, etc — can aspire to a playoff against their peers except FBS Group of 5 teams.
There are obviously financial implications in play here that might be tough to sort out, but from a competitive standpoint, this feels like a no-brainer. There can be a provision that allows a Group of 5 team to opt into the playoff with the bigger schools if it’s ranked high enough, but, again, let’s not get held up by small details.
In addition to Liberty, the three other Group of 5 champions that played a Power 5 team in their bowl game also lost: SMU lost to Boston College (3-5 in ACC); Troy lost to Duke (4-4 in ACC); Boise State lost to UCLA (4-5 in Pac-12). Miami (Ohio), which won the MAC, lost to Appalachian State. A playoff would be more meaningful for the players, has the potential to generate more revenue and, most importantly, would be the result of the application of common sense. — Kyle Bonagura
Does Lincoln Riley now have Caleb Williams’ successor in-house with redshirt sophomore Miller Moss? Moss deserves a long, hard look after throwing for 372 passing yards and a Holiday Bowl-record six touchdown passes in the 42-28 victory over Louisville. With Malachi Nelson (No. 1 overall in the 2023 ESPN 300) in the transfer portal, a need to overhaul the defense and the program moving to the Big Ten, USC has plenty to do before opening the 2024 season against LSU in Las Vegas. One spectacular start in San Diego for the inexperienced Moss (914 passing yards and nine TD passes in eight career games over three seasons) could very well lead to the long-term answer USC needs at the game’s most important position. — Blake Baumgartner
The Heisman Trophy campaigns for the 2024 season are already being planned. There will be more than a few SEC quarterbacks in the conversation, including Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, Texas’ Quinn Ewers (assuming he returns for next season), Missouri’s Brady Cook and even Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, who would give Vols’ fans a reason to pay attention to the “Heistman” again.
But the SEC player best positioned to win the Heisman next season is the same guy who should have received more consideration this season: Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
Beck carved apart Florida State on 13-of-18 passing for 203 yards and two touchdowns in just one half after the Bulldogs built a 42-3 halftime lead in their 63-3 demolition of the Seminoles in the Orange Bowl.
This was Beck’s first season as the Dawgs’ starter, and he only got better and more effective as the year progressed. The rising fifth-year senior completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,941 yards, 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions. In Year 2, he will go from one of college football’s breakout stars to one of the nation’s biggest stars. He’s as good at reading defenses as he is at making pinpoint throws on third down and scrambling when he needs to.
By the way, the last Georgia player to win the Heisman Trophy was a guy by the name of Herschel Walker. — Chris Low
Without the need to go undefeated to make the 12-team playoff, Notre Dame will earn its chance to compete for a national title again with the help of Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard. With opt-outs that included Sam Hartman, Notre Dame’s depth was on display in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, when it manhandled a depleted Oregon State team 40-8 even while starting backup quarterback Steve Angeli.
With Leonard and LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock incoming, though, the offense will be in experienced hands — as long as the Irish can find some reliable receivers. Former Clemson receiver Beaux Collins and former FIU receiver Kris Mitchell both committed to Notre Dame after entering the transfer portal. Notre Dame lacrosse player Jordan Faison also had 115 receiving yards and a touchdown against Oregon State.
After leading the Irish to a 10-win season, coach Marcus Freeman enters his third year with a manageable schedule he can both win and impress the CFP selection committee with. The Irish open with a road trip against a Texas A&M team in transition and get Louisville and Florida State at home in 2024. — Heather Dinich
With a move to a new conference coming in 2024, Jedd Fisch’s team went into the Alamo Bowl against Oklahoma and capped off an impressive year with a statement victory. Against a program that’s been the crown jewel of the conference in recent years, the Wildcats dominated on defense — forcing six turnovers — and on offense, with freshman quarterback Noah Fifita leading his team to 38 points.
It was a fitting finish for Arizona given the way they surprised the Pac-12 this season and became the conference’s third-best team behind Washington and Oregon. Fisch took over the program in 2020 and proceeded to go 1-11 in his first season. In 2022, there was some improvement as the Wildcats jumped to 5-7, but the leap to a 10-3 record in 2023 was shocking.
Arizona became one of the most exciting teams to watch this season, putting the program back on the map at just the right time. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty that Arizona has to improve on — their running game was abysmal in the Alamo Bowl and the defense needs to make a leap of its own — but as Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC, the floor is open for an up-and-coming team to cement its place at the top of the new Big 12. — Paolo Uggetti
Penn State is used to going 0-2 against Ohio State and Michigan, but this season, Michigan didn’t even have suspended head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sideline when it beat the Nittany Lions on their home turf. PSU coach James Franklin is now 1-14 against Ohio State and Michigan teams ranked in the top 10.
After flirting briefly with staff stability, there were changes again at the coordinator position, with defensive coordinator Manny Diaz leaving to become head coach at Duke, and Franklin hiring Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas, which should be an upgrade. How much of rookie quarterback Drew Allar‘s struggles were a result of not having dependable receivers? How much did they have to do with his lack of accuracy? How much had to do with coaching? Probably a combination of it all.
Penn State has had enough trouble with Ohio State and Michigan, and now it has to worry about Washington, USC and UCLA. For most of Franklin’s decade leading the program, PSU has settled for being the league’s third-best team. With the Big Ten growing to 18 teams in 2024, even that could be a challenge. Penn State doesn’t only have to worry about beating the incoming Pac-12 powers, though. It should also be concerned about its season-opener at West Virginia — which beat North Carolina soundly in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. — Dinich
What Virginia Tech did in a 41-20 victory over Tulane in the Military Bowl sent a clear message to those paying attention to both the rise and fall of this program: The Hokies will be ACC title contenders in 2024.
Once a shoo-in to play in ACC championship and BCS games under Frank Beamer, it is no secret Virginia Tech has fallen on hard times over the last decade. Though a 7-6 record is not quite to the standard Beamer set, the growth Virginia Tech showed in Year 2 under Brent Pry simply cannot be ignored. Nor can the optimism after the Hokies won their first bowl game since 2016.
Virginia Tech finally has a reliable quarterback, star-in-the-making Kyron Drones — who rushed for a career-high 176 yards, threw for 91 and scored three total touchdowns in miserable conditions in Annapolis. The Hokies finally have a talented back in Bhayshul Tuten, who rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns in the win and an offensive line that can move people and set up big plays.
When Virginia Tech has been elite, it has typically had a strong dual-threat quarterback and powerful run game. That is what the Hokies have headed into 2024. Drones and Tuten will return. So will the entire offensive line, and their top four receivers. Defensively, top pass-rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (14.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks) will also return, along with top corner Dorian Strong. Virginia Tech has also added veteran Duke defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles, who will give the Hokies a strong interior presence.
Virginia Tech has not played for an ACC championship since 2016. For a fan base eager to see the Hokies’ return to prominence, eight years is a long time to wait. But for the first time in a long time, there is positive energy surrounding the program, and the bowl game showed exactly why. — Andrea Adelson