Bookmaker roundtable: Week’s biggest line moves, sharp bets
Jay Rood, vice president of operations at MGM race and sports book: The Patriots running from 7 to 10 is the big move of the NFL and is being driven by the wise guys at this point and will be pressed even harder by the public this weekend. The books will need the Colts to finish off a great day or to avoid what could be the worst week in the NFL so far.
Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports, CG Technology: The Patriots opened 7.5 against the Colts and the number shot all the way up to 10, driven mainly by public money. The Bengals opened minus-1 vs. the Bills and has moved to 3, also based on public money. In college, LSU opened as a 5-point favorite over Florida, which moved up to 9 after Will Grier‘s suspension. The number has since settled at 7. Washington opened minus-1 vs. Oregon and has climbed to 3 mainly off of smart money, which continues to come in on the Huskies week after week.
Jay Kornegay, head oddsmaker at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBooks: In college, Ball State opened minus-16.5 vs. Georgia State and the current line is Ball State minus-13; Wisconsin opened minus-19.5 vs. Purdue, now Wisconsin’s favored by minus-23.5; Air Force opened minus-1.5 vs. Colorado State, now Air Force is minus-4; East Carolina opened minus-9.5 vs. Tulsa, now East Carolina’s minus-14; and Old Dominion opened minus-8.5 vs. Charlotte, now Old Dominion’s minus-4.5.
In the pros, Bengals opened at a pick’em vs. the Browns and the current line is Bengals minus-3.5 even money. Also, the Patriots opened minus-6.5 at the Colts, now line is Patriots minus-10 even money.
John Avello, race and sports operations director at Wynn and Encore: The Texas Tech-Kansas line moved from Tech minus-27 to 31.5, and why not? Kansas appears able to only muster a couple of scores for an entire game, while the Red Raiders should be good for about seven to nine scores.
Rood: The Patriots are drawing all the money right now. They are getting the worst of it right now after the sharps moved this to New England minus-10.
Simbal: New England is the biggest public game of the week, followed by Cincinnati and Arizona. In college, the public is backing Notre Dame, which makes sense due to the coaching turmoil surrounding USC this week.
Kornegay: In the pros, the public is betting New England heavily (25-1 ticket count) at Indianapolis. The public also likes the Packers (10-1) at home vs. the Chargers, the Cardinals (9-1) at the Steelers, and the Bengals (6-1) at the Bills.
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Avello: USC at Notre Dame has the biggest action, not only because of name notoriety but anticipation of this game, which when played at South Bend takes place on the third Saturday of October. The Irish have gone from a 3- to 6-point favorite in this year’s contest.
Rood: Iowa going from plus-1 to minus-2.5 is drawing a good amount of sharp play at this point. This is probably based on the fact that Iowa looks a lot like Michigan.
Simbal: In the NFL they are backing the Jaguars, who opened as a 1-point underdog and have moved to a 1-point favorite. In college they are backing Washington over Oregon and Louisville over Florida State.
Kornegay: In college, sharp action has come in on Georgia State plus-15.5 vs. Ball State and Washington minus-1.5 at home vs. Oregon.
Avello: The sharps are on Vandy. South Carolina dropped from a 7-point favorite down to a 3 due to a few factors. Coach Spurrier calling it quits was the biggest, but that just gave the sharps an additional excuse to play against a team that’s 2-4 straight up and against the spread.
Rood: Michigan dropped from 30-1 to 10-1, with the full Harbaugh frenzy in full effect.
Simbal: We took a big bet on the Browns at 500-1 and it moved to 250. Clemson moved from 20-1 to 15-1 because its path has been getting more clear each week, and thus its inclusion in the playoff more likely.
Kornegay: In college, Stanford’s odds to win the national championship has moved from 30-1 to 20-1 since last weekend, while Michigan has gone from 25-1 to 10-1 to win it.
In the pros, after losing to the Bengals this past week, the Seahawks’ odds to win the Super Bowl went from 6-1 to 10-1. After the Colts’ win, their odds to win lowered from 25-1 to 16-1. And Monday night’s loss against the Steelers moves the Chargers’ odds from 60-1 to 100-1.
Avello: Michigan 60-1 to 22-1 (everyone wanted a piece of this future this past week). New York Giants now down to 18-1, as the NFC East is a mess.