Baltimore Orioles midseason betting report
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October’s participants have been identified. MLB’s 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year’s All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let’s dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team’s 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team’s first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Vegas projection: 83 wins
My projection: 80 wins
Current record/pace: 44-44 (81-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 83.1 wins
What has gone right: “Next man up” is the mantra in just about every professional sports organization and, sure enough, the Orioles have all chipped in to fill a giant hole from their 2014 offense. In this era of baseball, losing a player who hits 40 homes runs, as Nelson Cruz did last year for Baltimore, just can’t be replaced by a newcomer — but the Orioles have nearly filled that gap with collective improvement from existing players. Most notably, Manny Machado appears fully recovered from a knee injury and already has reached a career high for home runs in a season with 19. It’s possible another uptick in lineup production will surface in the second half of the season as Matt Wieters takes more playing time away from Caleb Joseph, now that Wieters is back from an injury that kept him out of the lineup for more than a calendar year.
Ever since Buck Showalter took the reins in the dugout in 2012, the Orioles’ resurgence has been anchored by outstanding defense. This year is no exception, as Baltimore is once again a top-five unit in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ranked fourth this season, and nearly in a dead heat with Tampa for third place, the Orioles are a top-five defense for the third year in a row, a distinction no other team can claim.
What has gone wrong: In Ubaldo Jimenez and Wei-Yin Chen, the Orioles’ pitching staff has two No. 2 starters followed by a bunch of 4s and 5s to fill out the rotation. Things have gotten so bad at the back end that Baltimore has had to relegate Bud Norris and his 6.98 ERA to the bullpen. The defense makes everyone appear a slot better than their skill sets, but this is still a weakness for the Orioles.
Second-half outlook: There’s not another team in baseball with an over/under market, pricing to date and season’s pace equaling the same number like the Orioles. Stripped of all luck, they’ve even played to the level of an 83-win team. As Baltimore has been fortunate enough to stay relatively healthy all year, there’s really no reason to project anything else the rest of the way. A best-case scenario for Baltimore would be for the AL East to stay packed like a NASCAR Sprint Car race until September.
If that happens, the division will descend into a free-for-all, where the first team to 85 wins takes the division. As the Orioles don’t appear to have the starting pitching or explosive offense needed to pull away before then, that’s probably what they should hope for.