Alabama, Oklahoma favorites to win CFB Playoff
“I thought 9 or 9.5 was pretty short,” Rood said of the Cotton Bowl point spread. “I was thinking 11 or 11.5 on this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the game close closer to 14, actually. So I’m going to be really aggressive and make sure to stay ahead of the curve with Alabama.”
The higher line attracted an early-limit bet on Sparty +10 and was the only limit bet Rood said he took Sunday. Limits on early bowl lines are purposely low — $5,000 at the MGM — but will increase later in the week. The Westgate SuperBook was one of the shops that opened Alabama at -9.5. Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the SuperBook, said the Crimson Tide match up well with the Spartans.
“Michigan State plays slow, and they huddle,” Salmons said. “That helps Alabama. I have a hard time believing Michigan State could have a lot of success against Alabama, as far offensively.”
Barring significant injuries to the Tide, Salmons believes Alabama will be favored over the winner of the other semifinal between Oklahoma and Clemson, if the Crimson Tide get past Michigan State. Remember, Alabama was a 7.5-point favorite over Ohio State in last year’s Sugar Bowl; Ohio State won 42-35 and went on to win the national championship.
Still, the Crimson Tide head into the Cotton Bowl at even money to win the national championship at the SuperBook; Oklahoma is next at 9-4, followed by Clemson at 5-1 and Michigan State at 6-1.
The Sooners opened as 2.5-point favorites over No. 1 Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The line has grown to as high as -4 at some offshore shops, with several books in Las Vegas dealing Oklahoma -3.5.
“We have Oklahoma rated second, behind only Alabama,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology.
The Sooners finished the regular-season at 9-3 against the spread, the best ATS record of any of the four playoff teams. The Tigers and Sooners met in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl, with Clemson drubbing Oklahoma 40-6. But a lot has changed since that rout, and bettors early on are gravitating toward the Sooners.
“So far the early money has been on Oklahoma,” Station’s casino sportsbook manager Chuck Esposito said.
All four playoff participants were in the mix in the preseason, according to the odds to win the national championship at the SuperBook.
• Clemson opened at 20-1 and slowly moved up the odds board throughout its undefeated regular season.
• Alabama opened at 8-1 but dropped back to 20-1 after a September loss to Ole Miss.
• Oklahoma opened at 12-1 but fell back all the way to 100-1 after losing to Texas in October. The SuperBook did not take a bet on the Sooners at 100-1.
• Michigan State opened at 20-1 and fell back to 40-1 after losing to Nebraska.
At CG Technology’s futures book, the house is sitting pretty on Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson.
“Michigan State is no good, though,” Simbal said, pointing to a $2,500 ticket on the Spartans placed in the preseason at 20-1.
Aaron Rodgers‘ game-winning Hail Mary in the Green Bay Packers’ 27-23 victory on Thursday created a six-figure swing against the house at the MGM sportsbook.
“A lot of sharps were heavy on Lions,” Rood said. “But we had a couple of house players betting the Packers pretty big.”
The Packers were around 3-point favorites at most shops, though money on the Lions did drive the line down to -2.5 at several shops before the prime-time kickoff. The total closed at 47, so the Hail Mary touchdown also pushed the total over.
Caesars reported suffering a big hit on Rodgers’ 61-yard heave that was hauled in by Packers tight end Richard Rodgers as time expired. The books said one of its largest bettors put a “significant chunk” on the Packers and ended up cashing the ticket on the final play.
“We were clearly Lions and under fans,” Esposito said.
The books bounced back on Sunday, though, riding the Philadelphia Eagles’ upset of the New England Patriots to another winning Sunday. One bettor at the Flamingo sportsbook put $43,000 on the Patriots to beat the Eagles straight-up at -430 odds. The Eagles held off a late fourth-quarter rally and upset the Patriots 35-28 as 9.5-point underdogs. The money line bet would have paid $10,000.