2024 NFL free agency: Fantasy football impact of signings and trades
ESPN Fantasy writers Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza and Eric Moody offer their insights into what each move means for a player’s fantasy value in 2024.
Kirk Cousins signs with the Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Impact: Positive
The Falcons’ offense just keeps getting more interesting this offseason, as after the hiring of coach Raheem Morris, the team now signs Cousins, a very-good-albeit-unspectacular quarterback who represents a sizable upgrade upon the Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke rotation the team had in 2022-23.
Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles’ that does present some injury risk at the season’s onset, but he averaged 18.7 fantasy points in eight starts before getting hurt, sixth-best among quarterbacks who started at least that many. He’s a borderline QB1, probably best ranked 12th-13th at his position, but his arrival is plenty promising for the futures of running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts. — Cockcroft
Russell Wilson signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral-to-positive for Wilson, Negative for Pickett
The move sets up a genuine quarterback battle, between Wilson, whose 16.1 fantasy points per start during his two seasons in Denver ranked 18th among quarterbacks (minimum 10 starts), and Kenny Pickett, whose 10.3 points ranked 41st. Wilson presumably wouldn’t have selected a team unwilling to let him start, so he’ll probably be under center in Week 1 unless he has an awful preseason. He’ll have a decent pair of receivers to throw to in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and could benefit from Arthur Smith’s run-oriented offense that should more frequently rely on play-action. Wilson still seems most likely to be a matchups quarterback, even with a standout preseason that nets him a starting job. — Cockcroft
Josh Jacobs signs with Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
The Packers have switched up their backfield. Green Bay added Jacobs and, in a surprising turn of events, released Aaron Jones, who had one year left on his contract. With AJ Dillon set to test free agency, Jacobs could (at least in the present moment) retain an every-down role on his new team. Clearing 260 touches for the fifth consecutive campaign of his career, the former Raider has been a consistent fantasy producer since entering the league in 2019.
His career-best season — where he averaged over 16 fantasy points per contest — came in 2022. While Jacobs’ numbers unsurprisingly dipped last year (3.5 YPC), he still recorded top-20 FF stats on a per game basis (13.8 fantasy points per game). More of the same (or better) should be expected — assuming Green Bay drafts a rookie and employs Jacobs as a bridge — in 2024. — Loza
Saquon Barkley signs with the Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy Impact: Positive
Though injuries have been a problem for him throughout his six-year NFL career — he has missed 25 games in that time — Barkley has proven himself one of the league’s most well-rounded running backs when on the field, averaging a fifth-best-at-his-position 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game since entering the league. He gives the Eagles a much-needed rushing boost, adding a dimension to the offense that at times was lacking in 2023, particularly late in the year. As Barkley’s receiving numbers suffered as a result of the frequent injuries to Daniel Jones while in New York, he should rebound in Philadelphia working with Jalen Hurts. A return, or improvement upon, his 2022 numbers is entirely possible, if he plays a similar number of games.
Consider him an 18-carries-a-game player, rendering Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny mere change-of-pace backs. — Cockcroft
Tony Pollard signs with the Tennessee Titans
Fantasy impact: Neutral
He was one of the biggest disappointments in 2023, his first season as a full-time starter, as Pollard saw 59 more carries and 75 more touches but totaled 62 fewer yards. That he did so behind one of the game’s better offensive lines, on a team with one of the league’s best passing offenses, is especially unsettling. Pollard should have an opportunity to seize a similar amount of work, but in a less optimal environment — bad offensive line and shaky passing game — and with Tyjae Spears lurking to steal work if the 2023 struggles repeat. Fantasy managers — this columnist included — would’ve loved to see Spears get a chance instead, but this might quickly morph into a time share. — Cockcroft
D’Andre Swift signs with the Chicago Bears
Fantasy Impact: Neutral
Complete your bracket by selecting the winner for each game of the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament. Play Men’s Tournament Challenge
He is an unusual addition for the price, considering his sluggish finish to 2023 — he averaged 9.9 PPR fantasy points in the season’s second half and had 66 total yards in the Philadelphia Eagles’ wild-card loss. Additionally, there is the presence of Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert on the roster, but Swift’s deal assures he’ll probably occupy a three-down role. It’s a downgrade in offense, with the Bears likely to draft Caleb Williams as their quarterback, making Swift a low-to-midrange RB2 for fantasy (Mike Clay projects him for 1,054 total yards, 209 fewer than last season). Johnson is now more of an afterthought, after originally appearing like he might be a decent bargain candidate entering 2024. — Cockcroft
Gabe Davis signs with the Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy impact: Neutral-to-positive
The presumed big-play receiver replacement for Calvin Ridley, Davis’ 14.6 yard average depth of target was second-most in the league, and 27% of his receptions went for 20 yards last season. Some of Davis’ success needs be attributed to Josh Allen, whose 60 receptions and 12 touchdowns on throws at least 15 yards downfield ranked fifth and second last season, though his new quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, had a respectable 49 (11th) and 10 (eighth) in that department. While Davis’ fantasy value — that of a matchups-oriented WR4/5 — might ultimately not change in Jacksonville, there is the path to his gaining a larger role than merely the situational deep threat he was in Buffalo the past two years. There’s a hint more upside now. — Cockcroft
Jerry Jeudy traded to the Cleveland Browns
Fantasy impact: Neutral for Jeudy, positive for Marvin Mims Jr.
The substantial takeaway here doesn’t pertain to Jeudy at all. It’s that his departure from Denver paves the way for fantasy darling Mims to see a huge spike in targets, aligning for a prospective breakthrough. Mims might have WR3 upside, dependent upon the identity of his quarterback. Jeudy, meanwhile, should settle in as the Browns’ No. 2 receiver, a role that’ll probably bring similar depth/matchups appeal for fantasy rather than grant him a true breakout path. It’s bad news for Elijah Moore, who scored 77 PPR fantasy points in his final nine games of 2023 but will now struggle to see consistent targets. — Cockcroft
Tight End Darren Waller traded to Giants
Fantasy impact: Positive
This supremely talented tight end moves to an offense in desperate need of playmakers. Waller might return to 90-plus receptions and 1,000-plus receiving yards, even with Daniel Jones at QB. Waller is that good and the rest of the Giants — none of whom hit 60 catches or 750 receiving yards last season — do not stand out. Waller just needs to stay healthy, which should be the bigger concern. Still, he can be a top-five TE — even in this offense. — Karabell
–>