2023 NFL betting: Loza’s and Dopp’s Week 17 props that pop
We hope that you and yours enjoyed the holiday. And that you’re using this amorphous period of time to rest, relax and maybe cash a few winning tickets.
Hopefully, we can help you bring in an abundant 2024 with this week’s Props that Pop.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (vs. Bengals)
Liz: I get it. Mahomes has disappointed everyone, from fantasy managers to Swifities, over the course of 2023. Dropping a game to Raiders on Christmas Day was certainly motivation, though, to bounce back on New Year’s Eve, especially since that loss means Kansas City still needs a win to clinch the division and No. 1 seed. I think the Bengals will be the team to deliver the Chiefs that belated holiday gift on Sunday. Cincinnati has allowed three of the last four QBs that the team has faced to throw two passing scores and the list is far from a murder’s row (Trevor Lawrence, Nick Mullens, Mason Rudolph). With the fifth-highest implied team total for the week (25.5) and in plus matchup for Travis Kelce (Cincy has allowed the fourth-most TDs to TEs), Mahomes figures to bounce back and pass for at least two scores in Week 17.
Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (at Giants)
Daniel: Stafford and this Rams offense has been on a tear over the last month and a half. Since Week 12, he leads the NFL with 14 touchdowns in five games. Not only that, he’s second over that span in passing yards and fourth in pass attempts. They are throwing the ball a ton, which makes sense because they have an incredible trio of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams all heavily involved in this passing game. Stafford’s had 2+ passing touchdowns in five straight. This Giants pass defense has been middle of the pack when it comes to passing touchdowns allowed, so it’s not a scary matchup, especially with how the Rams have been playing lately.
Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (at Ravens)
Daniel: One more QB play for me … What should we start with? The bad or the really bad? I don’t want to be negative, but this is not a pretty matchup for Tua. Playing without Jaylen Waddle, who is missing this game with a high ankle sprain, Tua is facing a Ravens defense that has eaten quarterbacks alive this season. Okay, not literally, but in their 15 games this year, they’ve allowed a total of 15 passing touchdowns. That’s 1.0 TD per game on average! No team has shut down QBs more than the Ravens this year. They’re one of two teams to have more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed this season (shoutout to Stephania Bell’s 49ers). And Tua hasn’t be crushing it in the touchdown department lately. Since Week 12, Tua’s only had one game with multiple passing touchdowns, and that was against the Commanders. Between his struggles, missing Waddle and this elite Ravens pass defense, I’m taking the UNDER on 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Austin Ekeler OVER 44.5 rushing yards (at Broncos)
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Liz: Yeah, Yeah, Yeah … go ahead and call me biased. I’ll admit (heck, Austin has admitted it himself) this year has been a disappointment for last year’s TD hero. That doesn’t mean, however, that he can’t hit the over on a basic rushing prop. Giff Smith handed the RB1 role back to Ek last week, as Austin recorded a healthy 15 totes versus Buffalo last Saturday. His 4.3 yards per carry weren’t jaw-dropping but it was certainly a step in the right direction. The Broncos figure to be more generous than the Bills. In fact, Denver has allowed the highest YPC (5.1) to opposing rushers all season. Even 12 carries at 4.1 yards a piece (well below his projection) can lift Ek over this line. He’s good for it.
Nico Collins OVER 59.5 receiving yards (vs. Titans)
Liz: Despite finding the end zone, Collins underwhelmed in his return from a calf issue last week. The early-season ball hog converted four of six looks (third in team targets) for 18 yards and the aforementioned score. He also logged a season-low 44% snap share and ran fewer than 30 routes for just the fifth time all season. That suggests an easing back in process. Collins figures to see more action another week removed from the injury and with C.J. Stroud back under center (as well as the continued absence of Tank Dell). The matchup should help, too. Tennessee’s secondary has been pummeled by injuries. As a result the unit has been generous to opposing wideouts, allowing the second-most receiving yards to the perimeter (2,011).
CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (vs. Lions)
Daniel: This one hurts me to write, but there are a lot of reasons to think CeeDee is going to find the end zone in this one. First off, the Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points at home this year. That’s a lot. Second, the Lions have given up 19 touchdowns to WRs this year, 4th most in the NFL! Third, this Lions defense just gave up 441 passing yards to Nick Mullens, showcasing how vulnerable they are through the air. Fourth, Lamb has a touchdown in seven of his last nine games. And my fifth and final reason is that Mr. Lamb is currently tied for second in the NFL in end zone targets. The matchup lines up perfectly for Lamb to get into the end zone, so I’m just accepting it.