2023 MLB odds, predictions update: World Series, awards, more
A pair of red-hot National League teams have shaken up the betting landscape.
The Atlanta Braves, winners of 27 of their final 32 games heading into the All-Star break, have strengthened their favorite status in their quest for a World Series championship, their odds improving to +330.
More importantly, they sport the now overwhelming favorite for NL Most Valuable Player honors, Ronald Acuna Jr., whose -400 odds are significantly ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (+900) and Freddie Freeman (+1200). Acuna, by the way, is on pace for a .331 batting average, 38 home runs, 100 RBIs, 75 stolen bases and 144 runs scored.
The Cincinnati Reds, meanwhile, have won 23 of 31 contests since promoting top prospect Elly De La Cruz.
De La Cruz, whose 16 stolen bases are the sixth most through any player’s first 30 career games in the modern era, and go along with a .325 batting average and .524 slugging percentage, has narrowed the gap in the NL Rookie of the Year race, one that looked effectively cliched by Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll not long ago. A shoulder injury that limited Carroll shortly before the All-Star break, however, contributed to De La Cruz’s rising award odds, narrowing the odds gap to -300 for Carroll and +190 for De La Cruz.
Despite the Reds’ division lead, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers who remain NL Central favorites (-105). The Reds check in with a much-improved +125, yet haven’t made much waves in terms of championship odds either, placing 17th among the 30 teams at +6000.
Despite the blister that forced him out of his final start of the first half, and limited him to hitting duties only during the All-Star Game, Shohei Ohtani (-850) is considered the biggest favorite from among either of the league’s big three awards (MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year).
It’s the Cy Young races, however, that have become interesting: Shane McClanahan‘s injury (+700) has dropped him to fourth in the odds, giving Framber Valdez (+190) the edge ahead of Kevin Gausman (+350) and Gerrit Cole (+390) in what’s a wide-open American League race.
In the NL, the All-Star Game’s starter, Zac Gallen (+215) has emerged as the favorite, but it’s a wide-open race as well there, with Spencer Strider (+350) and Clayton Kershaw (+350) right behind.
By Tristan H. Cockcroft
Where are the best betting values as the season’s second half dawns? Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell and David Schoenfield offer their picks.
Note: All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook as of July 13.
Houston Astros (+700): Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez missed significant time in the first half. Jose Abreu had a miserable first two months. They’ve had injuries in the rotation. And they’re still only two games behind the Rangers. No team has repeated since the 2000 Yankees, but the Astros just need to get healthy — plus, they still have a great bullpen that was so dominant last October (minus the struggling Rafael Montero) and I expect Cristian Javier to get on a roll like last year and team with Framber Valdez for a great 1-2 punch down the stretch. — Schoenfield
Baltimore Orioles (+2500): They might lean more longshot than favorite with those odds, but the Orioles have arguably the most sneaky good championship odds right now. They have both top-10 offense and bullpen, as well as enough prospect capital to both strengthen the team now and make trades to bolster what’s a suspect rotation. Even as things stand today, they stand an excellent chance at finishing with the AL’s second-best record, with a viable shot at earning the top seed. — Cockcroft
Philadelphia Phillies (+2500): Surprise! All one has to do is look to last season to see how the Phillies underachieved for months and then not only qualified for the playoffs, but toppled better teams to get to the World Series. This is a better team in 2023, notably in the bullpen and potentially in the lineup, presuming Bryce Harper finds his power stroke and team club trades for a left fielder with more range than an oak tree (moving Kyle Schwarber to DH). The past does not predict the future, but the Phillies are balanced, experienced and certainly could make another run. — Karabell
San Diego Padres (+3500): Though they scarcely showed it at any point during the season’s first half, the Padres still sport one of the richest rosters in all of baseball. They have three potential aces at the front of their rotation, an elite closer and a top half of the lineup that’s as about as talented as anyone’s. I’d expect the Padres to at least qualify for a wild card, and in that event, they’re as likely as any team to make a lengthy postseason run. — Cockcroft
Miami Marlins (+5000): The Marlins are in a playoff position right now and have much higher odds than several teams with much worse records. While they’ve been outscored, that was due to a wacky April in which they won a bunch of one-run games and lost all the blowouts. They’ve gone 24-12 since the beginning of June, outscoring their opponents by 40 runs, so that’s legit. If Sandy Alcantara can find his 2022 form in the second half, they have the rotation — with super rookie Eury Perez plus Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett — to make a run. And for what it’s worth: The Marlins have made the playoffs twice in a full season in franchise history and won the World Series both times. — Schoenfield
Cincinnati Reds (+6000): Um, is everyone still overlooking the actual NL Central leaders, loaded with the most exciting offense in the sport and, well, yeah, the Reds could use more pitching. In Graham Ashcraft we trust! Still, all you gotta do is get into the playoff tournament and anything can happen, and the way the Reds are playing, these odds — worse than the Mariners, Padres and Twins — speak loudly. There is a complete lack of respect and strong value here. — Karabell
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (-400): Really? Acuna is on the pace he is and he’s only a -400 favorite? I’m a bit surprised. Even if we take current numbers rather than his paces, did you know that only six other players in history have managed at least 21 homers, 41 steals and 162 OPS+ in a season, as Acuna has? It’s tough to overlook such a historic performance as this. — Cockcroft
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200): Tracking down Acuna will be difficult, but Freeman is only 1.3 WAR behind so it’s possible. Given that Acuna is hitting 54 points above his career average entering the season, I’m not sure he’ll hit .331 in the second half, but Freeman very well can hit .320/.396/.556 again. And Freeman’s total of 72 runs plus 61 RBIs is only one behind Acuna’s total of 79 runs plus 55 RBIs. — Schoenfield
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (+2400): Acuna is awesome, of course, but I don’t think people realize Carroll’s statistics look quite similar, and only one of them is doing this in his rookie season for a team nobody thought would contend for a division title. Acuna may make history, but Carroll is on that path as well. — Karabell
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres (+3300): Soto overcame a slow start to still post 3.4 WAR in the first half thanks to 15 home runs and a .419 OBP. If he can do what he did in May — .333/.482/.632 — over the final two-plus months, his offensive numbers may end up the best in the league. If the Padres surge in the second half, that could help his case as well (the Braves coasting to a division title could actually be a minor negative against Acuna). — Schoenfield
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (+1900): He’s the second betting favorite behind Ohtani, but … hey, maybe Ohtani gets traded to the National League. Seager missed a month with an injury, but has 52 RBIs in 59 games while hitting .353/.413/.613. If he keeps up those numbers and the Rangers win the division, he’ll have the strongest case in the non-Ohtani division. — Schoenfield
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (+3000): I hate to use “what if there’s an injury” arguments to support a long shot bet, but that’s the only logical one to make against Ohtani right now, and 2023 breakout Franco seems like the most logical from a team that is otherwise lacking in clear star-caliber names. — Cockcroft
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles (+7500): Those who didn’t know about Rutschman saw the potential for more power in the Home Run Derby, when he swatted blasts from each side of the plate. What if the Orioles pass the Rays for best record in the AL? Um, that certainly seems plausible, and if Rutschman approaches 30 home runs and walks 100 times — also quite plausible! — then, well, these odds will look silly. Ohtani is amazing, but his team is not. Rutschman’s team may be. — Karabell
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+350): I think this is a good time to buy in on Strider for NL Cy Young. Sure, he had a rocky early June stretch, but he rattled off four straight wins/quality starts with a 1.38 ERA and 39 strikeouts heading into the break, his fastball velocity snapping back to prior levels in the process. Strider should finish with among the healthiest win and strikeout totals, which should be plenty to make up for what might be fewer innings than some of his competitors. — Cockcroft
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (+350): A sentimental pick? Maybe a little bit. But his 2.55 ERA is nearly a full run lower than Strider’s 3.44, so no matter Strider’s strikeout dominance, that ERA advantage is a huge flag in Kershaw’s favor. And given the Dodgers are in a fight for the division title, Kershaw will continue to make his starts — assuming he can stay healthy, of course. — Schoenfield
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres (+900): Perhaps you weren’t paying attention after his ugly six weeks to start this season (his ERA was 5.40 entering May 26!) but Snell has been baseball’s best pitcher since then, permitting four earned runs over his final nine starts and 53 innings entering the break. That’s a 0.68 ERA! Snell has whiffed double-digit hitters in five of his past six starts, too. If Snell keeps this dominance up the final 10 weeks, he will become the latest hurler to win the Cy Young award in each league. — Karabell
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+350): He’s got a sizable edge over any other AL starter in FanGraphs WAR thanks to his outstanding peripheral numbers (leading the AL in strikeouts, FIP and SO-BB rate). He doesn’t have as many wins as some other candidates, but WAR has become much more important in Cy Young voting than win-loss record and Gausman’s consistent track record of excellence for three seasons now suggests he can keep this up. — Schoenfield
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (+700): While many Cy Young voters correctly have moved on from judging win-loss record as overly meaningful, McClanahan is 11-1. That stands out. He is on the injured list with mid-back tightness, but this is not expected to be a long-term problem. The Rays have sputtered lately, but if McClanahan triumphantly returns soon and cruises to an 18-3 record with 2.50 ERA and loads of strikeouts, it may be enough to overshadow whatever Gausman does. –Karabell
George Kirby (+6000) and Logan Gilbert (+9000), Seattle Mariners: Even as close as the AL Cy Young race currently is, I’m not really feeling it for any of the relative favorites, preferring instead to go with a pair of underrated arms on a team that could yet pull off a second-half run. Both Kirby and Gilbert have put up competitive numbers during the first half, and they’ve got the pitching-friendly ballpark in which to rack up a second-half hot streak. — Cockcroft
Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles (+7500): I don’t view this as a season in which no AL starting pitchers stand out and thus a relief pitcher has better opportunity than normal, but we should face facts, too. Bautista may finish with an ERA on the good side of 1.00. This is so rare. In addition, he is striking out more than half the hitters he has faced. Also pretty rare! Bautista is going to get some Cy Young votes if this continues. — Karabell
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (-300): As with Strider, I consider this an ideal time to buy in on Carroll, whose odds haven’t shifted a smidge since we all last checked in. Sure, the De La Cruz hype is monstrous currently, but Carroll still has a huge edge in terms of year-to-date numbers, including a 3.7-1.0 advantage in terms of WAR. Heck, Carroll finds himself on pace for a .289 batting average, 32 home runs and 46 stolen bases, numbers that have never been accrued by a rookie in history. I made the case in this space a month ago that playing the “what if the favorite gets hurt” odds made sense, when De La Cruz’s were +700. Now that De La Cruz has narrowed that gap and people have begun to sweat the Carroll shoulder injury, I’m zagging and going back to the favorite. — Cockcroft
Corbin Carroll: I’m with Tristan. The De La Cruz hype train is at its zenith right now, but Carroll is an MVP candidate, not just the leader for Rookie of the Year. As good as De La Cruz is playing right now, he’s played 56 games fewer than Carroll — ground he won’t be able to make up. Oh, and Carroll is pretty dang exciting as well. — Schoenfield
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (+190): Carroll clearly has the advantage, playing all season in the majors and then starting in the All-Star Game, but De La Cruz has been amazing in his first month. The Reds are probably more surprising than the Diamondbacks and, while we never wish for injury, Carroll does have a shoulder issue that required surgery a few years ago and then scared us again recently. Even if Carroll stays healthy, De La Cruz may steal this award by hitting .340 with a run scored per game and 50 steals. — Karabell
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers (+125): Jung rode a very high BABIP the first two months before that leveled off in June in which he hit .233, so there is some chance the batting average continues to plummet in the second half. Still, he has a chance to 30 home runs with 100 runs and 100 RBIs and I think if it ends up as close on paper between him and Masataka Yoshida, voters will favor the more traditional rookie in Jung (and Yoshida’s poor defense drags down his WAR). — Schoenfield
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees (+3500): This seems rather wide open with Jung, Masataka Yoshida and Gunnar Henderson as the betting favorites, but if the Yankees’ shortstop can raise his batting average to around the .250 mark and continue on his path toward 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases, he will get noticed. He is, after all, the Yankees’ SS. — Karabell