Projected 2020 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?
The one-win Cincinnati Bengals are still projected by the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) to pick No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL draft. The Miami Dolphins, who are now 3-10, are projected to have the Nos. 4, 20 and 23 picks, according to our 1-32 draft order projections.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, own the Los Angeles Rams’ first-round pick after the Jalen Ramsey trade. That pick is projected to be No. 21.
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams and game locations. The order is based on each team’s average draft position, which is determined by the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
Check out the full projection below (updated Tuesday, after every Week 14 game):
Average draft position: 1.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 69.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 98.6%
Average draft position: 2.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 91.6%
Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 83.5%
Average draft position: 4.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 68.3%
Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34.3%
Average draft position: 5.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 95.4%
Average draft position: 6.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 96.4%
Average draft position: 8.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 85.9%
Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 70.8%
Average draft position: 10.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 49.1%
Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.5%
Average draft position: 12.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.4%
Average draft position: 13.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.1%
Average draft position: 14.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.2%
Average draft position: 15.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.8%
Average draft position: 16.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2%
Average draft position: 16.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1%
Average draft position: 16.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.2%
Average draft position: 20.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.8%
Average draft position: 21.0
Average draft position: 21.1
Average draft position: 21.5
Average draft position: 23.0
Average draft position: 23.7
Average draft position: 24.8
Average draft position: 26.2
Average draft position: 26.4
Average draft position: 27.7
Average draft position: 27.9
Average draft position: 29.0
Average draft position: 29.1
Average draft position: 30.4