Ohio State’s futures odds shift only slightly after loss to Penn State
Patriots are the runaway favorites
The New England Patriots lost to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, albeit without Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo able to play quarterback. New England’s odds to win the championship dropped to 4-1 at that point, but then the Patriots reeled off three straight wins — and their championship odds have improved to a season-best 2-1 after Sunday’s victory over the Steelers, who were without Ben Roethlisberger.
The Patriots’ odds are more impressive when you consider that only three other teams are better than 10-1 — the Seahawks, Cowboys and Vikings. The next-best AFC team is the Denver Broncos at 14-1.
The Steelers, who still hold a one-game lead in the AFC North, have seen their odds drop from 6-1, to 12-1, to now 16-1 after losses the past two weeks.
Is there reason to believe in the Colts?
The Indianapolis Colts have alternated wins and losses in each of their past six games, last beating the Tennessee Titans on Sunday to move to just a game back of the Houston Texans in the AFC South. But despite the somewhat uninspiring week for the Colts, they moved from 50-1 to 30-1 to win the championship, making them the sixth-favorite to win the conference title, ahead of teams like the Bengals, Texans and Bills, despite having a 3-4 record.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Colts a 54 percent chance to win this week at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, but just a 29 percent chance to beat the Packers the following week on the road.
Ohio State was upset on the road Saturday against unranked Penn State. Now, undefeated Michigan has sole possession of first place in the Big Ten East, one game in front of both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.
But Ohio State’s odds didn’t take too much of a hit. It backed up slightly from 5-2 to 3-1 to win the championship. That’s still the second-best in the country behind Alabama, and just ahead of Michigan at 5-1.
The reason? Despite the loss, Ohio State still basically controls its road to the Big Ten Championship Game. Even if Penn State wins out, if Ohio State wins its final five regular-season games, including against Michigan in the regular-season finale, it wins the division.
What did the win do for Penn State’s chances? Despite needing a pair of Michigan losses to clinch the division, Penn State improved from nearly off the board (9,999-1) to a more manageable 500-1.
When NASCAR trimmed its playoff field from 16 to 12 drivers, Martin Truex Jr. was the second favorite at 9-2, right behind Kevin Harvick (4-1).
Truex spent most of the summer at 8-1 to win the championship, usually just off the favorites, who were at 6-1 or 7-1. Value-wise, it seemed like a good bet, given that Truex led the most laps this season and his best track type was the one that made up half of the playoff schedule. But Truex had a bad playoff leg and was eliminated, making Harvick to the prohibitive favorite at 5-2. He was 6-1 just two races ago.