Fantasy basketball: Why players like Tyrese Haliburton and Jarred Vanderbilt offer hidden value
And yes, I probably should also explain what a magazine was, but I’m on a word limit.
For me? One of the hardest aspects of going from roto leagues to points leagues?
The conflagration of value.
Removing all of the nuances of categorical thinking and rolling what’s left into one giant ball of doughy, aggregated production.
It’s required a lot of middle-of-the-night matcha making. My latest 3 a.m. explorations: seeking out applications of categorical strategy for points leagues.
And yes, if you’re playing roto, much of this still applies to you. I never leave my old roto brethren behind.
I start here: most categorical strategy exists in the realm of scarcity.
We are all competing for a finite amount of value. Which means we all have a means to gain a competitive edge:
Identify which statistical areas secretly contain a disproportionally high amount of value. And then moving to corner the market on said areas.
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As I touched on recently, in points leagues, positional scarcity carries all kinds of weight.
(Hint: small forward, small forward, and small forward.)
But how to approach categorical scarcity when final production is regarded as amorphous?
Look at what categories go into making up that giant globule of production. And see if certain categories will secretly deliver more heft to your giant globule.
The big clue: our revised points-league scoring system for the 2020-21 season. Different categories now offer different point values per unit.
The system has been revised for one big reason. To ensure that points scored (as in NBA points) doesn’t wholly decide who wins and loses in fantasy. To give the other categories additional competitive weight relative to NBA points scored.
So, in essence, everyone just doesn’t try to play with as many shooting guards as possible.
Here is a partial, focused-for-this-discussion breakdown of our revised system:
One fantasy point per NBA point. One point per rebound. Two points per assist. Four points per steal. Four points per block.
Defensive counting stats carry 400% more value per unit than the others? Give Nerlens Noel a tryout. FAST.
Now I know what you’re saying. “Blocks and steals don’t happen with the same frequency as assists, rebounds or NBA points. They’ve been ginned up by Andre Snellings so that all the counting stats carry equal weight. So, blocks and steals really don’t have extra value. They just occur fewer times per game.”
If that’s what you said?
You just defeated your own argument.
Remember: in your league, the available value is finite. The marketplace is locked in. Which always places a secret premium on scarcity. In any form.
Because having the market cornered on what’s scarce always gives you hidden advantages. Even when the market has been manipulated to promote equivalent value across all categories.
How can I explain… will you permit me a non-basketball example?
Say I run a fruit stand in South Pasadena, CA.
My stand operates weekly at a socially-distanced Farmer’s Market, alongside nine other fruit stands.
By ordinance of the City of South Pasadena, 10 stands are only allowed to sell the same four fruits.
The fruits: apples, oranges, Taiyo no Tamago Mangoes, and Yubari King Melons.
We are all required to sell the four approved fruits at the same exact four prices.
Apples are $1 each. Oranges are $1 each. Taiyo no Tamago Mangoes are $7,500 each. Yubari King Melons are $15,000 each.
The weekly supply arrives. All the other fruit stand managers go all in on apples and oranges.
It’s the obvious smart play. Because apples and oranges are just so darned plentiful. Our supply has 15,000 apples and 15,000 oranges. They’re easy to acquire. Easy to pick out. Competition for them is less stressful.
I take my time amidst the scramble for apples and oranges. I focus on one thing: find Mangoes + Melons. I view them as one category: one rarer, more valuable unit.
It’s a risk, but I am betting that my singular focus will lead me to find them before anyone else. I eventually pick out the only two Taiyo no Tamago Mangoes, and the single Yubari King Melon.
Market: cornered. We open for business.
I know my two Mangoes and one King Melon is just as valuable as their aggregate 15,000 apples and 15,000 oranges.
Because I have my market cornered, I have leveraged scarcity several competitive advantages.
I have a solid base of sales production that I don’t have to worry about the rest my business hours. To have a shot at winning, at making the most money, I only have to sell three items. The only ones I have.
While eventually, most of the other managers will realize they have less apples and oranges than one or two stands. To catch up, they will have to scramble. Try to trade apples for oranges. Oranges for apples. But they’re just flailing, because the available value is finite. In reality… winning the Farmer’s Market was already decided back when we picked the fruit (what I call “draft day.”)
Because they got fooled into going after something, because it was easier to see. I knew it wasn’t me against nine other stand managers.
By focusing on the scarcer units, for me, it was always going to come down to me and a couple of other stand managers.
And while they’re scrambling, I can focus on other ways to make my stand more competitive. I can use my extra bandwidth to enhance other variables. Signage. Location. King Melon T-shirts.
I succeeded because of scarcity. Because I focused on the two rarest fruits as one category. I gave my stand a unique, singular business model on which to operate.
Result: I am operating more efficiently. Winning in areas the other stands don’t have time to consider.
I have given myself the best chance at ultimate success. At walking away with the most money at the end of the night.
And that’s why steals and blocks are more valuable than points and rebounds.
When you corner the market on areas of production, you give yourself a base no other managers have. Which lets you move from a position of strength. And you can look at other areas of roster improvement. focus
And if you take the time to bundle steals and blocks together — as steals + blocks — you will be giving your fantasy brain a novel POV. A unique approach that differentiates your fake franchise from everyone else.
If none of this makes sense, watch Moneyball this weekend. Better yet, read it.
Looking at it as steals + blocks helps you move beyond just looking at who’s leading the league in just steals. Or just blocks.
Which is important because there are some NBA players that are elite in steals + blocks not by being elite in a single category. But instead by just being pretty darn good in both categories.
So, I told you all of that to give you this. A small list of players to target that excel in steals + blocks, without being elite in either single category.
Jerami Grant, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons (1.1 BPG, 0.8 SPG)
Danny Green, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers (0.7 BPG, 1.2 SPG)
Tobias Harris, SF, Philadelphia 76ers (0.9 BPG, 0.9 SPG)
De’Aaron Fox, PG, Sacramento Kings (0.6 BPG, 1.4 SPG)
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG, Sacramento Kings (0.7 BPG, 1.1 SPG)
Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets (0.9 BPG, 0.7 SPG)
Mikal Bridges, SF, Phoenix Suns (1.1 BPG, 0.6 SPG)
Derrick Jones Jr., SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers (0.9 BPG, 1.1 SPG)
Delon Wright, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons (0.6 BPG, 1.2 SPG)
Jarred Vanderbilt, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (0.7 BPG, 1.5 SPG)
Matisse Thybulle, SF, Philadelphia 76ers (0.7 BPG, 1.3 SPG)
James Johnson, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks (0.9 BPG, 1.1 SPG)