Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
Here’s a look at Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Rich Hill (L), rostered in 22% of ESPN leagues, Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: At 41 years old, Hill looks like he is fantasy relevant again. The veteran lefty has lasted six or more innings in three of his last four turns, surrendering a combined two runs over his last 21 1/3 frames. Hill’s fastball may sit at just 88.6 mph, but he’s still getting swings and misses with it (25.5% whiff rate), and his curveball remains a legit put-away offering. While he’s sailed through his last three starts against the Yankees, A’s and Astros, he gets a much easier test this time around. The Orioles have been a bottom-seven offense this season, sporting an 88 wRC+ and .294 wOBA.
Domingo German (R), 52%, New York Yankees at Texas Rangers: Outside of Gerrit Cole, German has arguably been the Yankees’ most consistent arm in the starting rotation. The right-hander owns a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last five starts, hurling six or more innings in four of those outings. He’s fanning nearly a batter per inning and has the best walk rate of his career (1.9 BB/9). While German has taken advantage of some bad offenses, he is matching up with another unintimidating offense on Thursday. The Rangers’ lineup may be slightly above average against right-handed pitchers, but their 27.3% strikeout rate makes them a high-upside matchup.
Luis Garcia (R), 11%, Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics: Garcia continues to make a case that he belongs in Houston’s rotation. The 24-year-old sports a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across eight games (six starts), displaying an impressive 10.3 K/9 rate. That strikeout rate is driven by four separate pitches (cutter, slider, changeup, curve) that are generating whiff rates of 39% or higher. Garcia has gotten into some trouble with walks and homers, but he has yet to allow more than three runs in a start, even with multiple tough matchups. He finds himself in a solid spot on Thursday, squaring off with an Oakland team that’s been below average against righty pitching.
Drew Smyly (L), 9%, Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Smyly opened the season with four straight clunkers, allowing four or more runs in each outing. Since then, he’s delivered two consecutive quality starts, surrendering just one earned run over a combined 12 frames. Two solid starts aren’t enough to erase Smyly’s early-season struggles, but it shouldn’t take much for the southpaw to deliver another solid effort against Pittsburgh’s non-existent offense. The Pirates’ 83 wRC+ is third worst in baseball, and they’ve been even worse so far in May, ranking dead-last with a 74 wRC+.
The back of Toronto’s bullpen has been a bit of a mess this season, with six different relievers registering at least one save, and none of them with more than three. That said, it’s worth noting that, the reliever who leads the team with three saves — Rafael Dolis — was just activated from the injured list on Tuesday. There’s no guarantee that Dolis will be the favorite to close going forward, but if you’re desperate for saves, he makes for a nice speculative pickup who is available in 92% of ESPN leagues.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mike Zunino (R), 10%, Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Dean Kremer): Mike Zunino has been doing Mike Zunino things. He’s striking out at a 34.1% clip, but he’s also showcasing his power stroke. The Tampa backstop has already clubbed 10 homers this season, with four coming in his last five games. He matches up well in Thursday’s contest against a below-average hurler in a hitter-friendly park.
First base — Bobby Dalbec (R), 15%, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (LHP Steven Matz): After a slow start, Dalbec’s power is starting to show up. He has four extra-base hits, including a pair of homers, in his last four games. Dalbec is also crushing lefties this season, putting up a 1.016 OPS against them, which puts him in a favorable position against Matz on Thursday.
Second base — Gavin Lux (L), 47%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Riley Smith): Since the beginning of May, Lux is batting .314/.375/.431, which is a notable improvement over his .179/.213/.250 triple slash from April. Given the Dodgers’ injuries, he should continue to play every day. On Thursday, Lux draws the platoon edge against Smith, who has a 6.83 ERA over 29 innings this season.
Third base — Jonathan India (R), 15%, Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants (RHP Johnny Cueto): India started the season hot, but he slowed considerably once the league adjusted. Now, he’s starting to pick things up again, putting up a 1.076 OPS over the last week with a pair homers and a stolen base. Cueto, meanwhile, has not been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing seven runs over 7 1/3 innings.
Shortstop — Brandon Crawford (L), 46%, San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tyler Mahle): Despite hitting more than 14 homers just once in his career, Crawford continues to belt balls over the fence. He clubbed his 10th homer of the season on Tuesday, putting him on a 39-homer pace. Crawford’s power output will obviously slow down, but it may not happen at Great American Ballpark, one of baseball’s most homer-friendly venues.
Corner infield — Rowdy Tellez (L), 4%, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta): You can’t see it in his .188/.225/.282 slash line, but Tellez has been stinging the ball this season. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate put him in the 97th percentile, so it should be only a matter of time before all of that hard contact starts paying off.
Middle infield — Luis Arraez (L), 35%, Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (RHP Griffin Canning): The Twins and Angels are set for a double-header on Thursday, so streaming Arraez gives you the chance at getting two games’ worth of production. A career .346/.391/.458 hitter against right-handed pitching, Arraez is in line to face two righties on Thursday.
Outfield — Taylor Ward (R), under 1%, Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Jose Berrios): Like Arraez, Ward gets the opportunity for the double dip in Thursday’s twin bill. Ward, who hit .306 and clubbed 27 homers at Triple-A in 2019, has popped a couple of homers and posted a double-digit walk rate since his early May promotion. With a sprint speed score in the 91st percentile, there is some steals potential here too.
Outfield — Ian Happ (S), 46%, Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals (RHP Joe Ross): Happ draws one of the better matchups of the day, squaring off against Ross, who has allowed eight or more runs on two occasions this season. More importantly, the righty has been tattooed by lefty batters in his career (.301/.382/.478), putting Happ in a prime spot.
Outfield — Matt Beaty (L), 12%, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Riley Smith): Beaty has been drawing regular playing time for the Dodgers, often slotting into the middle of the order. It’s not an overly exciting profile, but decent pop and on-base skills are more than enough to make Beaty relevant when he’s hitting in the heart of such a dangerous lineup.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.