Fantasy baseball daily notes — Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
Here’s a look at Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Jordan Montgomery (L), rostered in 57% of ESPN leagues, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Montgomery’s rostered percentage sits above our 50% threshold, but he’s been dropped in enough leagues over the last week that he’s still widely available. Despite his 4.57 ERA, Montgomery holds a 1.02 WHIP and is getting plenty of strikeouts (9.6 K/9), which suggests better days are ahead. Those better days could very well start on Thursday, when the left-hander squares off against an Orioles club that sports a bottom-three wOBA (.292) and a 26.9% strikeout rate.
Ryan Yarbrough (L), 30%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics: It’s unclear if Yarbrough will serve as a traditional starter in this matchup or will follower an opener, but he’s in the streaming conversation either way. The southpaw has piggybacked an opener in each of his last two appearances, tossing a combined 10 2/3 innings of one-run ball. Yarbrough has never missed many bats, but he has terrific control and is adept at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the yard. Although the A’s present a tough matchup, their offense is driven by a strong 10% walk rate, and Yarbrough’s ability to limit free passes should help keep them in check.
Kwang Hyun Kim (L), 14% St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: After a rocky season debut, Kim shined in his next outing against Cincinnati, spinning 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts and no walks. When Kim is spotting his fastball and his slider working as a put-away pitch, he’s a tough customer. A matchup against the Phillies looks tough on paper, but they’ve been a below-average offense this season and have really struggled away from Citizens Bank Park, so the move to the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium works in Kim’s favor.
Dylan Cease (R), 14%, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: Cease has plenty of untapped talent, but he’s yet to put it all together. While the 10.4 K/9 is appealing, the 6.2 BB/9 shows he’s still a work in progress. Even though the 25-year-old has yet to allow more than three runs in a start this season, he’s also yet to make it out of the fifth inning. In most situations, Cease would be a wait-and-see guy, but Thursday’s matchup presents very little risk. Not only do the Tigers sport the worst offense in baseball (77 wRC+, .276 wOBA), but they also carry an MLB-worst 28.9% strikeout rate.
Luke Weaver (R), 13%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are another team we want to attack on Thursday. While the Rox sport an NL-worst 77 wRC+ this season, they’ve been even more brutal away from Coors Field, putting up a 40 wRC+ and .226 wOBA. Weaver has been up and down this season, but he showed what he can do when everything’s clicking, shutting out the Reds for seven innings with eight Ks and only two baserunners allowed in his second start of the season. Even if the right-hander doesn’t have his best stuff on Thursday, he’s a good bet for a quality start against this harmless Colorado offense.
Bullpen: It was easy to be skeptical of Orioles closer Cesar Valdez early in the season. After all, he’s a 36-year-old who throws an 85-mph fastball and relies on his changeup over 80% of the time. It might be time to start buying in, though. He’s notched five saves on the season and holds a 0.84 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 0.84 BB/9 through nine appearances. Available in nearly 50% of ESPN leagues, Valdez looks like a relatively safe, entrenched closer at the time when those are very hard to come by.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are 2021 statistics
Hitting
Catcher — Kyle Higashioka (R), 2%, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): Higashoika has been working his way into the starting lineup a few times a week, and he’s making the most of his opportunities, sporting a 1.294 OPS with four home runs in 10 games. Manager Aaron Boone even said before Tuesday’s contest that Higashioka had earned more playing time. If he gets the nod on Thursday, he gets an enticing matchup against an exploitable hurler in a homer-friendly park.
First Base — C.J. Cron (R), 51%, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Luke Weaver): After a slow start, Cron has turned things on, batting .391 with three homers and eight RBI over the last week. It’d be better if this contest took place at Coors Field, but Cron still carries plenty of power upside against Weaver, who has had trouble keeping the ball in the park this season.
Second Base — Rougned Odor (L), 4%, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): Odor is an all-or-nothing hitter, but that has suited him well with the Yankees thus far, as he’s clubbed three homers in 10 games while often slotting into the heart of the lineup. On Thursday, he gets the platoon advantage against a weak pitcher in a great venue for offense.
Third Base — Maikel Franco (R), 19%, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (LHP Jordan Montgomery): Franco is quietly having a strong offensive season for the Orioles, sporting a 118 wRC+ with a career-best 9.8% walk rate and 16 RBI in 22 games. He’s also batting .320/.393/.480 versus lefties this season, putting him in a favorable spot against Montgomery on Thursday.
Shortstop — Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R), 48%, Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez): Kiner-Falefa is primarily a speed play, as he has four steals on the season, but he’s also swatted a pair of homers and is a decent source of runs while batting near the top of the Rangers order. Perez is one of the hurlers we want to attack on Thursday, and Kiner-Fafela is a good way to get exposure against him.
Corner Infield — Bobby Dalbec (R), 13%, Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson): It was a long time coming, but Dalbec finally clubbed his first homer of the season on Tuesday. Based on his batted-ball data that includes a 16.2% barrel rate (88th percentile), the Boston first baseman will see more balls leave the yard in the coming weeks. The 25-year-old is a nice buy-low target if you need power.
Middle Infield — Nico Hoerner (R), 12%, Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (Undecided): Since his promotion, Hoerner is batting .389 with four doubles through six games. He’s even batted leadoff in each of the Cubs’ last two contests, which shows the team’s trust in the 23-year-old. Hoerner doesn’t necessarily have a standout tool, but as long as he’s producing and hitting near the top of the lineup, there’s value to be had here.
Outfield – Pavin Smith (L), 14%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela): again, it’d be nice if this matchup took place at Coors Field, but it’s a good idea to get some exposure against Senzatela, one of the lowest-ranked hurlers on the slate. Smith, who has an elite 57.7% hard-hit rate this season, gets the platoon edge in one of the day’s best matchups.
Outfield — Myles Straw (R), 11%, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (LHP Yusei Kikuchi): Straw may not bring much to the table offensively, but what he does bring are elite wheels, which have helped him swipe five bags this season. He’ll carry the platoon advantage against Kikuchi, who has a 5.70 ERA and 47.9% hard-hit rate allowed through four starts.
Outfield — Adolis Garcia (R), 41%, Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez): We’re doubling down on hitters against Perez, who is surrendering a .368 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. Garcia has already slugged five homers in 14 games, thanks in part to a 22.9% barrel rate, and he should be able to square up Perez on Thursday.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.