Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
Unfortunately, filling those spots will be a bit of a challenge, because the player pool is so thinned out. On the pitching side in particular, we’ve cobbled together four names to consider, but all of them carry a degree of risk. Your league situation will dictate how aggressive you need to be.
Here’s a look at Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Zach Thompson (R), rostered in 16% of ESPN leagues, Miami Marlins at New York Mets: On the surface, it appears Thompson’s 20.2% strikeout rate is artificially low based on his 11.6% swinging strike clip. However, his 15% called strike is low, helping to explain the tempered punch out total. That said, as Thompson continued to develop, both his swinging and called strike levels should improve. On Thursday, Thompson may not pile up strikeouts against the Mets, but he’ll be facing one of the weaker lineups with a righty on the hill.
Eric Lauer (L), 15%, Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants: The good news with Lauer is that he owns a 2.23 ERA over his last nine appearances (eight starts). The bad news is that he’s lasted five innings just once in his last five turns. Whether he can last long enough on Thursday to have a chance at a win is an open question, but the matchup against San Francisco isn’t terrible. The Giants’ offense has been merely league average in the second half and slightly below average over the last month. Lauer also gets a huge park upgrade, trading in American Family Field for Oracle Park.
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Kris Bubic (L), 6%, Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland: Like the rest of the hurlers on this list, Bubic has flaws. Worst among them is his 4.6 BB/9 rate, which has not paired well with his struggles keeping the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9). Bubic does, however, have 28 strikeouts in his last 22 2/3 innings, as his changeup has been racking up whiffs, so there’s at least a glimmer of upside here. Then again, we’ve already witnessed the downside, so caution is warranted. At the very least, a matchup against Clevaland, who are below average versus lefties, puts Bubic in a decent spot on Thursday.
Matt Manning (R), 5%, Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics: Manning’s rookie season hasn’t gone as planned. He sports a 5.46 ERA over 12 starts, and, despite boasting impressive strikeout numbers in the minors, his K/9 sits at a dismal 5.2. If there are reasons to invest in the 23-year-old on Thursday, it’s that he owns a 2.93 ERA at home this season, and he has been pitching better of late. It’s a small sample, but Manning has a 3.24 ERA over his last three turns, which includes six innings of one-run ball against a dangerous Toronto lineup his last time out. There’s risk here against a strong Oakland offense, but some fantasy managers need to be taking risks at this point in the season.
Bullpen:
We’ve highlighted the Cleveland closer situation in this space before, pointing out how confusing it was that James Karinchak was more widely rostered than Emmanuel Clase. The numbers have flipped now that Karinchak has been optioned down to Triple-A, but Clase, who owns a 0.92 ERA with eight saves in the second half, is still available in nearly 30% of leagues. That’s still way too many.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each innings completed after the fourth inning, and one point for a strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed and one point for each walk.Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mike Zunino (R), 44%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez): We frequently highlight Zunino in this space, but there’s no harm in going back to the well. The Tampa slugger has slammed seven homers in August, giving him 27 on the season, and he draws the platoon edge against E-Rod on Thursday. Zunino owns a .341/.412/.868 slash line versus left-handers this season.
First Base — Miguel Cabrera (R), 7%, Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea): Cabrera has been in the news for belting his 500th career home run last week, and he still carries fantasy value in the right spots. Not only does the future Hall of Famer boast an elite 51.4% hard-hit rate this season, but he still hits lefties hard, putting up a 117 wRC+ against them. Meanwhile, lefty Sean Manaea has a 6.10 ERA since the break.
Second Base — Tony Kemp (L), 3%, Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (RHP Matt Manning): Kemp’s best skill is his ability to get on base. After posting a career-best 13.2% walk rate in 2020, he’s topped it this season with a 14.2% mark. Add in a splash of power and speed and the platoon edge against a young hurler who has struggled this season, and Kemp makes for an enticing play on Thursday.
Third Base — Yoshi Tsutsugo (R), 4%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (RHP Keegan Thompson): Tsutsugo’s season-long slash line (.192/.284/.369) is downright ugly, but he’s been displaying a big-time power stroke of late. Since joining the Pirates in mid-August, the lefty swinger has clubbed five homers with 11 RBI in 31 plate appearances. Given Thursday’s matchups against Thompson, one of the day’s lowest-ranked hurlers, Tsutsugo is in a good position to keep on raking.
Shortstop — Brendan Rodgers (R), 17%, Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Huascar Ynoa): Although the results aren’t anything special, Rodgers has shown improvement at the plate in the second half, boosting his wOBA from .287 to .333. Rodgers won’t have the platoon edge against Ynoa on Thursday, but he will get the Coors Field bump, which is just as important. His dual-position eligibility at both second base and shortstop also makes it easier to slide him into your lineup.
Corner Infield — Bobby Dalbec (R), 13%, Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Shane McClanahan): McClanahan has been in a nice rhythm of late, but with the way Dalbec has been swinging the bat, he could disrupt the 24-year-old lefty on Thursday. Over his last 19 games, the Boston slugger has produced a .388 average with seven dingers and 21 RBI.
Middle Infield — Brad Miller (L), 4%, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (RHP Paolo Espino): Brought in as a depth piece, Miller has done exactly that and is one of the reasons the Phillies are within shouting distance of the first-place Braves. The veteran’s numbers aren’t stellar, but he’s produced well in stretches as the Phillies muddled through Alec Bohn’s sophomore swoon and injuries to their infield. Miller is especially effective with the platoon edge and is currently on another mini-heater, slashing 462/.563/1.077 over his last four games.
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Outfield — Joc Pederson (L), 44%, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies (RHP Jon Gray): Pederson struggled in August, but there’s no better way to bust out of a slump than getting the platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher at Coors Field. In five August starts, Gray was tagged for a 6.55 ERA.
Outfield — Connor Joe (R), 22%, Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Huascar Ynoa): With only seven games on the slate, how about one more Coors Field bat? Unlike Pederson, Joe has been on fire over the last month, hitting .301/.385/.544 with seven bombs and 26 RBI in 29 games. A .343/.430/.642 slash line at Coors this season doesn’t hurt, either.
Outfield — Myles Straw (R), 41%, Cleveland at Kansas City Royals (LHP Kris Bubic): You should know the deal with Straw by now. It’s all about the wheels. Cleveland’s leadoff man has swiped 22 bags on the year, and he gets the platoon edge against Bubic on Thursday. Straw has also been a top-20 fantasy outfielder over the last month, according to the MLB Player Rater, showing just how valuable stolen bases are.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.