Fantasy baseball daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Thursday
Here are Thursday’s top streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Madison Bumgarner (L), rostered in 53% of ESPN leagues, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Bumgarner has quietly pitched well since returning from injury after the All-Star break. In six starts, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any outing, five of which lasted at least six frames. He only fanned 26 in those 38 2/3 innings, but the veteran left-hander only walked four with just four homers surrendered. The Phillies are a formidable offense, but they are incurring a big park downgrade and are still without Rhys Hoskins.
Chris Flexen (R), 48%, Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers: When analyzing a starting pitcher, some will tell you that you can’t simply pick and choose which starts to ignore and which ones to count. While that’s true in some situations, the good thing about streaming pitchers is that you can indeed pick and choose. If we ignore Flexen’s blowup outing against the Astros in late July (a start most fantasy managers would have avoided anyway), the right-hander sports an impressive 2.15 ERA over 11 starts. That ERA goes up to only 2.97 over 12 starts if we include the Houston outing, so Flexen’s numbers are favorable either way. Thursday’s start against the Rangers, who by far have the worst offense in baseball since the All-Star break (53 wRC+), is obviously not a matchup you need to avoid.
Zach Thompson (R), 19%, Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds: A matchup against the Reds, who have a top-five offense against right-handed pitching, doesn’t put Thompson in a particularly good spot. Because of the risk, I probably wouldn’t roll Thompson out there unless your personal situation calls for you to be aggressive. The good news is that the right-hander has been largely unfazed by big-league competition, posting a 2.91 ERA across 11 starts. If Thompson’s cutter and curveball are working on Thursday, the hope is that he can keep the Reds in check and squeeze out five solid frames.
Bullpen: The Reds are one of only a few teams in baseball that have basically had a rotating door in the ninth inning all season long. Who knows how long it will last but, for now at least, Mychal Givens looks like the team’s preferred option in the closer role. The 31-year-old right-hander has delivered eight straight scoreless appearances since joining the Reds, and he’s secured saves in three of his last four outings. Givens is available in 87% of ESPN leagues and seems like he will be a useful source of saves down the stretch.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Calculating Bill James game scores: A pitcher starts with 50 points, gets a point for each out, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for each strikeout. He is docked two points for each hit, four points for each earned run allowed, two points for each unearned run allowed, and one point for each walk.
Note: In 2019 and 2020, the average game score was 50.
Catcher — Mike Zunino (R), 40%, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez): It’s pretty cut and dry with Zunino. Sure, he strikes out too much, but his power is nearly unrivaled at the catcher position. He’s slammed 26 dingers in just 82 games this season, including one in each of his last five games. On Thursday, Zunino faces off against Lopez, one of the most hittable hurlers on the slate, so the fireworks could very well continue.
First Base — Andrew Vaughn (R), 45%, Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (LHP Cole Irvin): Vaughn continues to make up for his slow start, as he has been raking for well over a month now. The rookie is batting .316/.376/.549 with eight homers over his last 39 games. Those numbers are backed up by a 49% hard-hit rate that puts him in the 88th percentile. Irvin has pitched well, but sports a pedestrian 17% strikeout rate. When Vaughn puts the ball in play, good things usually ensue.
Second Base — Aledmys Diaz (R), 24%, Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (LHP Mike Minor): Once Alex Bregman returns, the Astros will likely find a way to keep Diaz in the lineup. Since coming off the injured list in late July, Diaz is hitting .347 with four homers and 16 RBI in 17 games. He’s also been smashing lefties (.322/.365/.576), putting him in a nice spot against Minor on Thursday.
Third Base — Luis Arraez (L), 30%, Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (RHP Jameson Taillon): While Arraez isn’t known for his power, he is known for his hit tool, which has been on full display this season. Not only is he hitting .317 on the year with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, but he’s batting .391 so far in the second half. Add in the fact that he’s stroking .336 versus right-handers this season, and he makes for a fine plug-and-play against Taillon in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Shortstop — Nicky Lopez (L), 5%, Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros (RHP Luis Garcia): Unlike Arraez, Lopez has yet to show much of a hit tool at the big-league level, as he doesn’t hit the ball with much authority. He has, however, displayed a solid eye, a great contact rate, and the ability to swipe a bag. Lopez has pilfered five bases in his last eight games, so he’s a cheap source of speed if you’re searching for steals.
Corner Infield — Seth Brown (L), 3%, Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox (RHP Dylan Cease): Brown sports a .266 ISO versus right-handed pitching this season, and he gets a big park upgrade by trading in the Oakland Coliseum for Guaranteed Rate Field. He also draws a matchup with Cease, who has posted an unimpressive 4.81 ERA over his last 11 starts.
Middle Infield — Luis Urias (R), 40%, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Jon Lester): Urias has been on a tear for the first-place Brewers, producing a .364/.382/.758 line with three homers over his last 12 games. Even better, he draws one of Thursday’s best matchups, squaring off against Lester, who has surrendered a .392 wOBA to right-handed batters this season.
Outfield — Jo Adell (R), 16%, Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (RHP Matt Manning): Adell’s production has been inconsistent since joining the Angels, but we know the rookie possesses big-time power. Thursday’s matchup against Manning will give him a good opportunity to show it off. The young right-hander has posted a 6.10 ERA over 10 starts this season, which includes a .345/.375/.513 line against right-handed bats.
Outfield — Jorge Mateo (R), 1%, Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Shane McClanahan): There are plenty of holes to pick apart in Mateo’s game, but he’s got two things going for him: He’s playing every day, and he possesses elite wheels. The 26-year-old is batting .318 with five stolen bases since the All-Star break, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to run free for the last-place Orioles.
Outfield — Lorenzo Cain (R), 24%, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Jon Lester): It was slow going for Cain early in the season, but he’s been swinging a hot stick ever since coming off the IL in late July. Over his last 14 games, he’s batting .321 with one homer, 12 RBI and three stolen bases. If Cain gets on base Thursday, he should be off and running against Lester, one of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners.
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.