ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 7: Strategy, advice, and picks
Week 6 provided a lot of drama in Eliminator Challenge, but the most popular selections largely survived. The Miami Dolphins (26% selected) overcame a 14-0 deficit to not only beat the Carolina Panthers, but cover the spread (-14). The Buffalo Bills (21% selected) were just 1 yard away from falling to the New York Giants as the largest betting favorite all season.
Week 7 stands out as one of the most difficult weeks all season as there are no double-digit favorites for the first time since Week 2. Only two teams are favored by more than seven points and both are in rare situations.
The Seattle Seahawks are favored by eight against the Arizona Cardinals, the first time Geno Smith has ever been favored by at least a touchdown in his NFL career. The Buffalo Bills are the first team to be favored by 8.5 points in New England since the Indianapolis Colts in Tom Brady’s first career start in 2001.
Those two teams are the top two picks this week, but with the Bills having already been used in the majority of entries and the Seahawks virtually unused, game theory could play a major role this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
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The Cardinals started the year 3-0 against the spread, including a shocking road win in Dallas, but since then they’ve lost three straight games by at least two touchdowns. They finally appear to be playing down to their low preseason expectations.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks don’t have many more strong weeks to be selected. The only other game where Mike Clay gives the Seahawks at least a 70% chance to win is with Week 10 against the Commanders. Given all of that, the Seahawks are the most logical choice of the week.
However, America agrees, as the Seahawks are currently being selected in a staggering 46% of remaining entries. If that percentage holds, game theory could dictate going in another direction.
Mike Clay chance to win: 75%
Caesars Sportsbook: 8-point favorites
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Fading Bill Belichick at home in Eliminator Challenge seemed unthinkable not too long ago, but this year, the Patriots look like one of the worst teams in the NFL (27th according to ESPN Analytics). The Patriots have lost their past nine games as an underdog against the spread, as they often get outmanned against better teams. The Bills are the biggest favorites this week according to the betting market as well as Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. The only two issues in using them are their future value (six more games with at least a 75% chance to win according to Clay) and the fact you might have used them already.
Mike Clay chance to win: 91%
Caesars Sportsbook: 8.5-point favorites (-420 moneyline)
The third choice this week can go in any number of directions. The team with the best chance to win is the 49ers, who are the third-biggest favorites in the betting market and have the second-best chance to win according to Clay.
The choice is largely dependent on how large your group is. In smaller groups, picking the best team is preferred, as the contest might end before Week 18. In larger groups likely to go all 18 weeks, the Raiders are the best contrarian choice.
Clay gives the Raiders their best chance to win in any game this season, even though they’re on the road. The Bears are expected to start undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent, and the Bears defense is one of the worst in the NFL. In a week where nine of the 13 spreads are three or below, the pickings are slim, so the Raiders provide a good balance of win probability and lack of future value.
Mike Clay chance to win: 49ers – 86%; Raiders – 71%
Caesars Sportsbook: 49ers -7 (-305 moneyline); Raiders -3 (-165 moneyline)