Clemson and Louisville among biggest futures odds shifts
There has yet to be a week this season when the New England Patriots weren’t the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They opened the season at 5-1 despite Tom Brady‘s impending four-game suspension, and their Week 4 loss to the Bills with Jacoby Brissett under center did little to stifle those chances.
Given how effective Brady has been in his return, the Patriots moved to 5-2 favorites this week after a win over the Bengals last Sunday, far ahead of the rest of the league. The second-favorites are the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, both priced at 6-1.
Thanks to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ upset loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots have pulled even further away in their odds to win the AFC. They’re the only team this season to be better than even-money to win the conference, sitting at 10-11 after Week 6.
Despite the bad loss, the Steelers remain the second-favorites at 11-2, staying ahead of the Denver Broncos, who also lost this week.
Clemson beat NC State on Saturday but came within a missed field goal of being upset and having its journey to the College Football Playoff derailed.
The Tigers now have a 73 percent chance to win the ACC, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the best chance of any Power 5 team to win its conference. The Tigers also hold a game lead over Louisville in the ACC Atlantic with the tiebreaker (a head-to-head win) in hand, but Westgate flipped the odds for Louisville and Clemson this week. Clemson entered 6-1 to win the championship and is now 8-1, giving them the sixth-best odds. Louisville was 8-1 and is now 6-1, tying the Cardinals with Michigan for the third-best mark.
The FPI gives Louisville just a 7 percent chance to win the conference, the third-best odds to win the ACC, behind Clemson and North Carolina, which is at 13 percent thanks to its chances to win the ACC Coastal Division.
Clemson faces a test in its next game, going on the road to face 13th-ranked Florida State. FPI gives the Tigers a 55 percent chance to win that game, but if they come out victorious, they should coast to the ACC Championship Game (FPI gives them a 73 percent chance to win out from there).
Louisville’s Lamar Jackson remains the clear favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, at 1-2 odds after topping 100 yards both on the ground and in the air in a win over Duke.
The big mover over the past two weeks, though, is Washington quarterback Jake Browning, who opened the season off the board. After the Huskies routed then-seventh-ranked Stanford 44-6, then handed out a 70-21 stomping of the Oregon Ducks on the road, Browning sits with gaudy numbers of 23 touchdowns, two interceptions and an FBS-best 72.2 completion percentage.
Browning had 200-1 Heisman odds just two weeks ago. Then it was 10-1 the next week. Now, he sits at 8-1 and is tied with preseason favorite Deshaun Watson for the third-best odds, behind Jackson and J.T. Barrett.
If you’re a fan of the theory that the Heisman will come from a team with an unblemished record, Browning has a lot to gain down the stretch. Meanwhile, Jackson could take a hit for not being in the playoff if Louisville can’t catch Clemson.
The Huskies have at least a 71 percent chance to win six of their remaining regular-season games, with their toughest test being a road game in the Apple Cup against Washington State.