Thursday fantasy hockey tips: NHL picks, matchups, more
I’ll dig into why I don’t like the particular matchups for Thursday below, but with news hitting Wednesday that Marc-Andre Fleury was hitting the injured reserve and that Frederik Andersen wasn’t close to returning, the goaltender market opened up a bit. Firstly, no the Wild will not be recalling prospect Jesper Wallstedt — not for his goaltending or his goal scoring. That means Minnesota’s crease belongs to Filip Gustavsson for at least a week, which might take us through to Fleury’s 38th birthday. Andersen, meantime, leaves behind a crease to be shared by Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kotchekov after the latter posted his first NHL shutout on Monday. You know Raanta is serviceable in Andersen’s stead, but Kotchekov offers and interesting gamble for upside if Andersen’s injury drags on.
Just don’t necessarily rush to get any of them into active lineups on Thursday.
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All times Eastern.
7 p.m., FLA Live Arena, Watch live on ESPN+
The only way to have two teams that have combined to be shorthanded more times than these two would be to matchup the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers. Oh, wait, they tried that on Wednesday night and didn’t stick to the script (darn coincidentals). Now, the Stars are one of the better teams at killing penalties and the Panthers are a shadow of their former selves on the advantage (16.1% conversion!?), so this may not get out of hand either — but it has the potential to. Beyond the special teams, this game features the No. 1 scoring line at five-on-five in Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz (17 goals) and the No. 3 line in that same metric in the form of Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe (10 goals).
7 p.m., Scotiabank Arena, Watch live on ESPN+
This one has the potential for fireworks. The Devils are the most aggressive team in the NHL so far this season, easily topping Corsi for per 60 minutes in the league at five-on-five, and have been successful with the approach, easily topping the league in goals for per 60 minutes at five-on-five. While the Leafs are 12th and 25th in those respective categories, no one would argue this club is operating at full capacity through 17 games. In fact, this virtually identical Leafs top six helped drive the team to finish sixth and third in those categories last season. The Leafs seem to be responding to the flip-flop of William Nylander and Mitch Marner on the scoring lines, with neither line giving up a five-on-five goal in two games since the swap, while scoring three (per MoneyPuck.com). The Devils also made some line changes after not scoring against the Habs in the first period of their last game, then went on to score five goals in the second and third after Jesper Bratt was moved to the third line and Dawson Mercer was elevated to Jack Hughes’ line.
7 p.m., Nationwide Arena, Watch live on ESPN+
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Still allowing more than four goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the Blue Jackets stand alone above that four-goal threshold. While Nick Suzuki’s shooting percentage (10 goals on 37 shots) remains a giant red flag for regression, that doesn’t mean the regression has to happen instantly. If the defenses don’t hold up in this one, there is an argument to try to shoehorn Kirby Dach or Emil Bemstrom into lineups. You might not need to pick over this game given there are 26 teams in action, but definitely don’t bench Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Johnny Gaudreu or Boone Jenner just because there are more exciting options on your roster.
Jamie Benn, C/W, Dallas Stars (69.0%): Again, the Panthers take a lot of penalties and the power play is where Benn does his damage. It’s not a super sustainable rate for long-term value (nine of 15 points on the advantage), but you should definitely use him when the Stars play a team with sin-bin issues.
Chandler Stephenson, C/W, Vegas Golden Knights (71.6%): He crested the 70% threshold on rosters this week, so it’s hard to justify highlighting Stephenson in a space like this (the recommendations should be reasonably available), but I’ll take the opportunity for one last plug: Stephenson is the glue holding together the No. 2 line in the NHL for scoring. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Stephenson have 12 goals at five-on-five (and another six on the power play) and have only allowed four against in more than 140 minutes. Stephenson should be just as much a roster lock as the other two.
See also:
Tyler Bertuzzi, W, Detroit Red Wings (60.1%)
Brandon Hagel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning (28.5%)
David Krejci, C, Boston Bruins (57.2%)
Sam Gagner, C/W, Winnipeg Jets (0.1%): The Ducks are the second-worst team in goals allowed per 60 minutes while shorthanded. Not only is Gagner a part of the top power-play unit already, but he’ll also draw top-six duty in this one after the wrist injury to Mason Appleton. Remember when Gagner came out of nowhere and posted an eight-point game in 2012? Just sayin’.
Stefan Noesen, W, Carolina Hurricanes (0.2%): Aside from the fact that he’s a lock on the team’s top power-play unit and is facing an Avalanche team weak on the penalty kill, Noesen has considerable medium-term potential as the replacement for an injured Teuvo Teravainen on the top line with Sebastian Aho.
See also:
Zach Parise, W, New York Islanders (3.9%)
Nathan Bastian, W, New Jersey Devils (0.2%)
Mike Hoffman, W, Montreal Canadiens (6.6%)
Adam Ruzicka, W, Calgary Flames (0.9%)
Aliaksei Protas, W, Washington Capitals (0.1%)
Emil Bemstrom, C/W, Columbus Blue Jackets (0.5%)
Juuso Parssinen, C, Nashville Predators (0.2%)
John Klingberg, D, Anaheim Ducks (71.8%): Yeah, he’s over the 70% threshold, but his rostership is dropping, not rising. That said, Klingberg has six points in the past seven games, so maybe he’s settling in and maybe he was dropped in your league.
Noah Hanifin, D, Calgary Flames (59.9%): Speaking of heating up, all five of Hanifin’s points have come in the past six games.
See also:
David Savard, D, Montreal Canadiens (50.2%)
Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders (56.7%)
Arber Xhekaj, D, Montreal Canadiens (6.1%): Is the rookie stepping up as the lead offensive defenseman for the Habs? They are still deploying five forwards on the top power-play unit, but Xhekaj is operating the blue line on the second unit. But even if the points aren’t there, he’s eighth in the NHL in hits and leads the Montreal blue line in shots on goal.
See also:
Nick Perbix, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (1.7%)
Marcus Bjork, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (0.1%)
Olli Maata, D, Detroit Red Wings (9.0%)
Thomas Greiss, G, St. Louis Blues (0.7%): Assuming the Blues don’t opt for back-to-back Jordan Binnington appearances, Greiss could finally earn some positive value here. The Blues are on a roll, have home ice and face a Capitals team that ranks 19th in the league in goals for percentage and 20th in the league in Corsi for percentage (EvolvingHockey.com).
Adin Hill, G, Vegas Golden Knights (24.6%): The Golden Knights must be a modern screenwriter because they do nothing but subvert my expectations when it comes to choosing the starting goaltender. I think I’ve believed they were ready to go Hill at least twice in this space this season and been wrong about it. So, to be clear, the Knights will probably start Logan Thompson on Thursday, since he is their starter.
The logic could be argued both ways: Thompson is coming off a rare loss and he could get back on track with an easy win against the Coyotes or, conversely, could be given the night off with Hill easily handling the Coyotes. As always, if you get word early enough to act on it, this is a free win for Hill off the free-agent pile.
Pyotr Kotchekov or Antti Raanta, G, Carolina Hurricanes (3.3% or 14.3%): While I embrace the idea of adding one or both of these goalies to fantasy rosters after Frederik Andersen hit the injured reserve, the Avalanche are a dangerous foe. They scorched Raanta for -1.2 fantasy points over the weekend, so I’m backing off whichever netminder gets the nod here. Kotchekov might be the choice coming off a shutout — but it was a shutout of the league’s most-anemic offense (Chicago).
Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild (1.2%): With Marc-Andre Fleury hitting the injured reserve as his former team comes to visit, Gustavsson will draw in for the start. The Penguins have been a conundrum this season, looking dangerous and harmless at different times (kind of like the Wild).
Like the situation with the Hurricanes, it might be tempting and it might be correct to rush to the free-agent wire due to an injury to the starter, but this particular matchup might not be the best place to begin using them. For what it’s worth, the Penguins do sit fourth in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
Arizona Coyotes: First things first, the Coyotes don’t have much hope to do anything at five-on-five in this matchup. Beyond that, while the Golden Knights don’t have the best penalty kill in the league by any measure (ranked 25th), they get by through not taking penalties. Only the Blues and Jets have been shorthanded fewer times. So the Coyotes won’t be able to skate by on their better-than-average advantage in this one.