NFL conference championship betting nuggets
This weekend we get the NFC Championship between the Buccaneers and Packers and the NFC Championship between the Bills and Chiefs.
Home teams are 10-4 ATS in conference championship games since 2013. Teams that did not have a bye in the wild-card round are 1-5 ATS in conference championship games since 2013. Six of the last eight conference championship games have gone over the total. Favorites covered both conference championship games last season. Underdogs covered all four games the previous two seasons. Overs are 5-5, home teams are 4-6 ATS and favorites are 4-6 ATS this postseason.
Here are more betting nuggets for both conference championship games this weekend and the schedule.
Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3, 51), 3:05 p.m. ET
• Tom Brady is 5-3 outright and ATS in his career as a postseason underdog. Brady is 40-17-1 ATS as an underdog in his career (35-23 outright).
• Aaron Rodgers is 12-6-1 ATS in his postseason career (4-2-1 ATS at Lambeau Field).
• The over is 13-6 in Rodgers’ postseason starts, with six straight games going over.
• Brady is 2-1 outright and ATS in his career against Rodgers. All three meetings went under. This is their first playoff meeting.
• Rodgers is 1-3 outright and 2-2 ATS in conference championship games. He has lost three straight and failed to cover in two straight. His last three conference championship games all went over.
• Brady is 9-4 outright and 6-7 ATS in conference championship games. The under is 8-5, including 7-2 in his last nine games.
• Since 2017, all seven playoff games played in weather of 30 degrees or colder went over the total.
• Since 2015, the under is 22-8 in Brady starts with a total in the 50s (16-5 since 2017).
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 53.5), 6:40 p.m. ET
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• Kansas City has clinched a losing ATS record (7-10 ATS currently). No team has ever won the pro football championship with a losing ATS record. The Chiefs are the first team to reach the conference championship with a losing ATS record since the 2012 Ravens, and their 7-10 ATS mark is the worst by a team entering this week since the 1997 Packers.
• If the Chiefs win but don’t cover, they would join the 2007 Patriots as the only teams to reach the pro football championship without covering in any of their previous playoff games.
• The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games (8-1 outright). They are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
• Patrick Mahomes has won 11 straight starts, but Kansas City is 4-7 ATS in those games.
• Mahomes is 26-14 ATS in his career as a single-digit favorite.
• Chad Henne has been an underdog in 28 straight starts, the fourth-longest streak by a QB since the 1970 merger. If he starts and is an underdog, he would tie Tim Couch for the third-longest streak in that span, including playoffs.
• If the line flips if Henne starts, each of the last two home underdogs in conference championship games won outright (2017 Eagles, 2015 Broncos).
• Buffalo has covered nine of its last 10 games. It has won eight straight games overall.
• The Bills are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season with four straight covers. All four times they covered, the game went over (the other game went under).
• The over is 12-5-1 in Buffalo games this season (8-9 in Kansas City games).
• Since 2015, there have been seven conference championship games that were regular-season rematches. The team that won the first meeting is 5-2 ATS in those seven games.
• In the last 10 seasons, teams favored by three points or fewer are 0-3 ATS in conference championship games.