Monday fantasy hockey tips: NHL picks, matchups, more
We can take a rare occasion to make the Coyotes the center of attention. The Coyotes are expected to return both Jakob Chychrun and Nick Schmaltz to the lineup. Chychrun has yet to play this season recovering from a wrist injury, while Schmaltz played just two minutes in the season opener before suffering a rib injury.
Both are relevant to fantasy and both are pretty available.
Chychrun is rostered in 68.0% of leagues. Despite being the No. 2 scoring fantasy defenseman and No. 7 overall skater for fantasy points in the 2020-21 season, it’s fair that Chychrun isn’t universally rostered. As good as that COVID-shortened campaign was, his 2021-22 season was a poor followup. After averaging 2.43 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2020-21, Chychrun struggled last year to the tune of 1.72 FPPG, which is arguably outside the range of even being worthy of a roster in shallow leagues.
It certainly didn’t help that Shayne Gostisbehere rolled into town and took over the quarterback job on the advantage. After posting 2:45 in power-play time per game in 2020-21, Chychrun fell to the second unit and earned just 1:53 last season. There is some reason for optimism in this campaign though, as the Coyotes have been using two defensemen on the top unit and Chychrun could supplant J.J. Moser in that role alongside Gostisbehere. It’s also positive that the power play has been fantastic this season overall, posting a 27.6% conversion that sits seventh in the NHL.
As for Schmaltz, he is rostered in 31.7% of leagues and is a solid pickup in almost any league. It’s easy to look at last season, see that Schmaltz finished 192nd among all skaters for fantasy points and shrug. But that would be a mistake. Schmaltz scored 99.8 of his 113.8 fantasy points from Jan. 17 on last season. He ranked 48th among all skaters in fantasy points over those final three and a half months. It was a sustained, successful scoring run and he should be back on rosters again to see if it continues this season.
The other major game to watch will be the New Jersey Devils attempting to tie their franchise-record win streak of 13 games as they host the Edmonton Oilers.
Resources: Goalie depth chart | Injuries | Schedule | How to watch on ESPN+ | Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Hockey | Download the ESPN Fantasy App | Daily lines | Troubleshooting
All times Eastern.
7 p.m., Prudential Center, Watch live on ESPN+
The Devils can tie their 2000-01 counterparts with a franchise-best 13th consecutive win here. And with the way they dominate possession, there isn’t much reason to believe they won’t. The Oilers are 27th in the league with 3.55 goals against per 60 minutes (all strengths) and are 22nd in Corsi percentage at five-on-five (48.69%). The Devils are second in the NHL in both those metrics. But this game might not be pretty overall, as both teams rank in the top five for goals per 60 minutes (all strengths). The difference might be in how many power plays the Oilers get, which is the one thing that catches them up to the Devils in goal production: At five-on-five, the Devils are second in goals per 60 and the Oilers are 24th.
7 p.m., Wells Fargo Center, Watch live on ESPN+
With 24 goals against in the past six games and 18 of those goals in the past four games, some of the Flyers possession failings are coming home to roost. They’ll find some adjustments and get some healthy bodies back to help stabilize things for Carter Hart over the longer-term, but at the moment you can trust their opponents to have an advantage. The Flames have committed to and are rolling strong with three scoring lines, while the Flyers have day-to-day injuries to Scott Laughton and Travis Konecny that mean they can barely roll one scoring line. Adam Ruzicka should get a look on a line with Elias Lindholm, while Mikael Backlund might be appealing as he plays with Jonathan Huberdeau.
10:30 p.m., SAP Center at San Jose, Watch live on ESPN+
Choose your league size, customize the scoring and set the rules you want to follow in order to create the fantasy hockey league you want to play in.
Create your custom league for free!
Both teams are ranked poorly in goals against at five-on-five; The Sharks are 29th with 3.25 goals allowed per 60 and the Sens are 24th at 2.70. The Sharks actually have the advantage on special teams, with the best penalty kill in the league this season, while the Sens are tied for allowing the eighth-most power-play goals against (15). In other words, the usual four are the only starts you want to consider for the Sharks (Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson and Logan Couture), while the Sens could be a threat with the entire top six, which included Derick Brassard and Mathieu Joseph skating with Alex DeBrincat in their game on Saturday (though that quickly devolved when they were eaten alive by the Devils).
10:30 p.m., Rogers Arena, Watch live on ESPN+
Another mismatch with the Golden Knights sitting sixth in goals per 60 minutes (all strengths) and the Canucks sitting 30th in goals allowed per 60 (and have allowed the second-most power-play goals). So the Golden Knights should have little troubling teeing off here. As far as the inverse ranking goes, the Canucks are actually a respectable ninth in goals for per 60 (all strengths) and the Golden Knights are fourth in goals against per 60, so this should be a good battle going back the other way. Make sure all your usual Knights are active, including Jonathan Marchessault as the extra forward on the advantage. For the Canucks, the only solid line they have working at five-on-five is still the unit with Elias Pettersson, Ilya Mikheyev and Andrei Kuzmenko. They do have a red-hot power play at the moment, but the Golden Knights have only been shorthanded 47 times (third fewest in NHL) and have allowed only 11 power-play goals against (tied for sixth fewest), so the Canucks will have their work cut out for them in limited chances.
Owen Tippett, W, Philadelphia Flyers (4.4%): Tippett doesn’t have the rostership percentage of a mid-tier player, but that’s our fault, not his. Despite missing some games at the start of the time period, Tippett ranks 54th among all skaters for fantasy points in the past four weeks. He may be without Travis Konecny here, but he still scored twice in the game Konecny missed on Saturday.
Jamie Benn, C/W, Dallas Stars (71.5%): While Roope Hintz may miss another game and give Benn another chance to play with Joe Pavelski and Jason Robertson, it’s actually the power-play time we are more interested in when taking on the Avs. And Benn will get that top unit power-play time whether Hintz is active or not.
See also:
Jake DeBrusk, W, Boston Bruins (40.8%)
Andrei Kuzmenko, W, Vancouver Canucks (45.9%)
Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks (54.3%)
Reilly Smith, W, Vegas Golden Knights (50.7%)
Jordan Staal, C, Carolina Hurricanes (5.1%): The Jets get a little thin after their top six, so let’s consider the third line for the Hurricanes as a threat in this one. Admittedly, it’s a guess that the line of Staal, Jordan Martinook and Jesper Fast will avoid a matchup with the top lines of the Jets, but even if they don’t, they are a threat. Guess which line (minimum 90 minutes together) has the best possession rate in the entire NHL (per MoneyPuck.com)? That’s right, it’s Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe for the Florida Panthers. But guess who is a close second? This third line for the Canes is dominant with the puck.
Nathan Bastian, W, New Jersey Devils (0.3%): The Oilers are one of three teams in the league allowing more than one power-play goal against per game. Bastian is the net-front presence for the Devils advantage.
Blake Coleman, W, Calgary Flames (5.0%): Coleman offers cheap access to Huberdeau while collecting two points in the past three games and always a threat to pickup a fantasy point from hits and blocked shots.
See also:
Adam Ruzicka, C/W, Calgary Flames (2.1%)
Warren Foegele, W, Edmonton Oilers (0.3%)
Juuso Parssinen, W, Nashville Predators (2.9%)
Torey Krug, D, St. Louis Blues (42.9%): The Ducks have allowed the most power-play goals this season, the most power-play goals in November and the most power-play goals in October. They are super consistent at allowing power-play goals. Krug runs the point on the advantage the majority of the time.
Jake Sanderson, D, Ottawa Senators (15.3%): Don’t expect him to perform miracles on the advantage against the league’s best kill, but the Senators can do some damage against the Sharks at five-on-five and there’s a good chance Thomas Chabot doesn’t return for this one — even though he’s supposed to.
See also:
Noah Hanifin, D, Calgary Flames (60.5%)
Brayden McNabb, D, Vegas Golden Knights (49.7%)
Mark Giordano, D, Toronto Maple Leafs (38.4%)
Jordie Benn, D, Toronto Maple Leafs (2.3%): Replacing T.J. Brodie on the top pairing with Morgan Rielly means decent minutes. Given Benn’s propensity for hits and blocks, approaching 20 minutes per game has spelled fantasy value to date.
See also:
Ian Cole, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (2.1%)
Nick Seeler, D, Philadelphia Flyers (0.3%)
Jonas Siegenthaler, D, New Jersey Devils (1.5%)
Ethan Bear, D, Vancouver Canucks (1.1%)
Matt Murray, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (53.4%): Even against the most dangerous offense in the NHL this season (the New Jersey Devils), Murray still managed to avoid going into negative fantasy points while taking the loss. The New York Islanders aren’t nearly as much of a threat to goaltending as the Devils, so let’s reward Murray’s solid play with the faith here.
Karel Vejmelka, G, Arizona Coyotes (10.5%): Just guessing that the return of Chychrun and Schmaltz could have the ‘Yotes buzzing. Vejmelka has only turned in three negative-fantasy-point games in November and they came against the cream of the NHL crop (Vegas, Dallas, New Jersey). The Predators aren’t in the same league as those other opponents, so Vejmelka might be an option if you want to stream in a goaltender.
Dan Vladar, G, Calgary Flames (0.7%): The Flames are in good position for a win in this game and Jacob Markstrom doesn’t need a rest. But the team hasn’t gone more than four games in a row with Markstrom in the crease and this would make five. If Vladar draws in for a start here, he’s just as likely to pull out the win.
Vladimir Tarasenko, W, St. Louis Blues (95.8%): He missed the last game with an illness and, even if Tarasenko is healthy, I wonder about the lineup. Missing Tarasenko meant Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich formed a line for the first time this season. They scored three goals together. The Blues might want to see what happens if they stay together, which would mean Tarasenko has to play somewhere else (Brayden Schenn and Ivan Barbashev?).
Joe Pavelski, C/W, Dallas Stars (93.2%): With word as of late Sunday, it looks like Roope Hintz will be a game-time decision after being a late scratch in the Stars last game with a lower-body injury. Adding to the concern for Pavelski and Jason Robsertson — even if Hintz does play — is that the Avs have become unbeatable at even strength. They now rank first in the league in goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and it’s by a significant margin. The power play could save the Stars top line here (and the power play is why Jamie Benn could still play above his head), but don’t look for a ton of production at evens.