Fantasy hockey – Forecaster for the week of Dec. 30-Jan. 5
And the Columbus Blue Jackets went into the brief holiday break making hay with a roster full of injuries. Among forwards hurting who are arguably top-six forwards for the team when healthy are Josh Anderson, Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Sonny Milano and Emil Bemstrom. They aren’t all locks for a scoring line, but would be in the mix.
Instead, the Jackets are getting it done with contributions from the likes of Kevin Stenlund, Jakob Lilja, Ryan MacInnis and Eric Robinson.
Now, none of these guys are, as individuals, doing enough for fantasy consideration. But they are plugging the holes to help others get there.
Pierre-Luc Dubois is skating with Robinson and Alexandre Texier, and has managed six points in four games. Kevin Stenlund is filling in on the line with Gustav Nyquist and Boone Jenner, helping Nyquist stay among the top 50 skaters on the ESPN Player Rater for the past month.
It’s a bit of patchwork, for sure, and hard to make any recommendations about potential free-agent pickups, but there is still a takeaway here: The Blue Jackets key players are going to be all right after all.
If we divided the three months of the season thus far in half at Nov. 15, you can see a difference.
Catch 300+ NHL games streaming live or on replay this season on ESPN+. Click here for the upcoming schedule and to learn how to subscribe.
Dubois in the first half: 12 points in 19 games. Second half: 14 points in 18 games.
Nyquist in the first half: 11 points in 19 games. Second half: 15 points in 18 games.
Werenski in the first half: 10 points in 19 games. Second half: 10 points in 11 games.
Is that difference between the halves enormous? No. But it is the difference between fantasy relevant and irrelevant.
Also in that span, Bjorkstrand had 17 points in 17 games before he was hurt, while Atkinson had started to come on in December with seven points in nine games before getting hurt. Neither of them are due back immediately, but keep an eye on their return in a couple weeks.
There are 47 games on the schedule next week, including the first ever outdoor game for the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars on New Year’s Day. The Stars, Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks have a light schedule with just two games on tap. Conversely, the Florida Panthers, Pittsburgh Penguins, San Jose Sharks and Tampa Bay Lightning get a boost with four games.
Most games are stacked on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. No team has more than two games that lean away from the busy days, but the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals are among the teams playing on two of those “off” days.
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: “O” (offense), which is on the left for each game, and “D” (defense), on the right, matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team’s season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents’ numbers in those categories. The “Ratings” column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week’s offensive (“O”) and defensive (“D”) matchups.
In the notes below, the focus every week will be mainly on players that are available for potential use. Ownership below 50 percent of ESPN leagues is a good generalized cutoff. I’ll try to also include players below 10 percent ownership whenever possible to cater to deeper formats.
Florida Panthers: I don’t want to spend too much time on Noel Acciari’s back-to-back hat tricks last week. Suffice it to say that’s not in his profile, but when you’re on a scoring line with Jonathan Huberdeau, these things can happen. If the Panthers continue to keep Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Evgenii Dadonov on three separate lines, then Acciari could be a part of your plans. The Panthers are among our four-game teams next week and the timing is right for a stream. But the best is already behind Acciari. He has as many goals in the past week and a half as he had all of last season.
Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks were a veritable walking wounded into the break, missing Ryan Getzlaf (illness), Jakob Silfverberg (illness) and Rickard Rakell (upper body) going into the break. It’s not clear if any of their ailments will have any staying power, but the Ducks have some bright young stars on their team (Max Comtois, Max Jones, Sam Steel, Daniel Sprong) who could blossom with more ice time. Stay tuned for anything long term.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Nikita Kucherov is revving up his game with points in six straight. The best way to buy partial shares on the cheap is to roster Ondrej Palat, who is the third member of a line with Kucherov and Brayden Point. Palat isavailable in about t75% of leagues and could be someone you hold on your roster in the longer term.
Toronto Maple Leafs: I know when my team has won three straight games and is on its way to winning its fourth, that’s the best time to make major line changes. I jest, but partway through the 4-1 against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday, coach Sheldon Keefe split up John Tavares and Mitch Marner, sending Marner to the wing of Auston Matthews with Zach Hyman in tow. Oh boy, was it the right decision. In less than two games together, they’ve generated seven goals (with none against). Hyman should be available in most leagues and is a must-add with this new energy.
Postgame analysis and highlight show airing each night throughout the season from Barry Melrose and Linda Cohn. Watch on ESPN+
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: Almost back to practice with the Pens, Crosby is going to force some awkward lineup choices onto the team sooner than later. Jake Guentzel has been Crosby’s locked-in winger for several seasons now, but he also showed fantastic chemistry with Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust during Crosby’s current absence. Do you go back to the Crosby-Guentzel combo? Or do you stick with this current line and let Crosby cobble together new linemates? Either way, it looks like Rust is coming out of this a winner and should be on a scoring line for the remainder of the campaign.
Danton Heinen, W, Boston Bruins: As the Bruins are wont to do from time to time, they’ve adjusted which forward is getting to spend time watching the power play dominate from a seat on the ice. I have chosen those words sarcastically to reflect the fact that whoever the fifth man is on the ice for the Bruins, the points still manage to funnel almost exclusively through Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Torey Krug. Still, Jake DeBrusk is out for the time being, and Heinen is in. Adjust your ninth forward roster spot accordingly.
Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary Flames: The Flames have kept Elias Lindholm apart from Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan consistently and for some time now. That includes a winning streak when they were first separated and now a stretch where they’ve lost four of five. These new lines appear to be sticking around. Backlund, for the record, is in my favorite spot in the new depth chart, playing regularly with Gaudreau and Monahan, on and off the power play.
Chandler Stephenson, C, Vegas Golden Knights: The Golden Knights clearly liked something about Stephenson’s game. After barely cresting 10 minutes per game in his career with the Washington Capitals, the Knights acquired him earlier this month and stuck him between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone on the second line. The results have been there, with Stephenson himself notching six points in 11 games, all while he has helped keep Pacioretty’s and Stone’s values quite high.