Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Thursday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
A busy Wednesday in the league saw some widely-available players surface as statistical stars. The Atlanta Hawks are finally getting big second-unit support from Bogdan Bogdanovic (rostered in 35.3% of ESPN men’s basketball leagues), while the Sacramento Kings are netting scoring and shooting from Kevin Huerter (61.9%). Both dropped 28 points in their respective games.
Another hot hand comes from the Dallas Mavericks, with Tim Hardway Jr. splashing the ball with consistency, including last night’s 31-point opus in Washington. For all the talk of the Indiana Pacers’ elite offense, Dallas is also delivering historic efficiency.
The Trail Blazers got a big line from defensive dynamo Matisse Thybulle (1.5%). While he’s a one-way talent, he’s up to 2.3 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game over the past week.
There’s still time to join or create a league in the No. 1 Fantasy basketball game. Your league starts fresh on the first scoring period following your draft.
Create or join a fantasy basketball league on ESPN. Your championship run starts today!
–>
Sign up today!
Thursday’s slate features just two games, with several of these rosters offering worthy streaming candidates.
The Brooklyn Nets are in Florida to face the Miami Heat. With Ben Simmons facing back issues once again and scoring machine Cam Thomas ailing, we nominate a key name from the Nets in the section below. The Heat, meanwhile, won’t have Tyler Herro, vaulting two guards into relevance (again, below).
The nightcap features the emergent Oklahoma City Thunder traveling to the Golden State Warriors in a game that favors the young visitors. With no Stephen Curry (knee) or Draymond Green (suspension), the Warriors test their youth and rotational depth on a big stage.
This segment nominates three key streaming options ahead of that day’s action. A streamer, by our standards, is a player available in at least half of ESPN men’s fantasy basketball leagues.
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF, Nets (59.7% rostered in ESPN leagues): The Nets paid big to retain this gifted spacer, and the results are finally showing. The team needs his two-way play (he’s got a surprisingly good steal rate), so this is worth breaking our 50% benchmark on what is a uniquely shallow slate.
Dario Saric, PF, Warriors (8.0%): A do-it-all forward who can pass, rebound and space, Saric will be busy passing from the high post and helping run the team’s offensive engine in a fashion akin to Green. The floor might be low, but the ceiling is actually quite high.
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF, Heat (13.2%): The shooting specialist is actually doing a bit more. As Zach Lowe recently noted, Robinson’s shot diet has shifted to more balance within the arc. The results are more playmakings and overall production from the undrafted gem. You still get big shooting results, but just with a bit more in the box score.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat (8.2%): The UCLA product is the rising name on this roster; he’s getting more usage and run than the aging Kyle Lowry and has shown an ability to build out diverse lines that include solid rebounding and steal rates.
Brandin Podziemski, Warriors (2.3%): The Golden State rotation doesn’t have many layers of guard scoring past the “Splash Brothers,” thus this young guard just flashed in the Jordan Poole role last time out. It’s a risky gambit, but “Podz” is a top target for those seeking scoring and shooting juice.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
BPI Projection: Heat by 1.4 in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT – Hip); Cam Thomas, (OUT – Ankle)
Heat: R.J. Hampton, (OUT – Knee); Tyler Herro, (OUT – Ankle)
Nets projections:
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 37.7 FPTS (20.6 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 27.5 FPTS (15.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.0 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG: 24.9 FPTS (10.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.5 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Nic Claxton, PF/C: 23.4 FPTS (10.0 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.0 blk)
Royce O’Neale, SF: 20.5 FPTS (6.4 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF: 19.8 FPTS (9.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.1 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Lonnie Walker IV, SG/SF: 15.2 FPTS (7.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.9 ast)
Heat projections:
Bam Adebayo, C: 40.0 FPTS (21.9 pts, 10.8 reb, 4.1 ast)
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF: 36.6 FPTS (20.9 pts, 5.8 reb, 4.1 ast)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 23.4 FPTS (13.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Kyle Lowry, PG: 22.3 FPTS (6.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.6 ast)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 19.4 FPTS (9.7 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
Kevin Love, PF/C: 14.2 FPTS (5.7 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Haywood Highsmith, SF: 13.4 FPTS (6.1 pts, 2.1 reb, 1.5 ast)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. Chase Center, San Francisco
BPI Projection: Thunder by 0.1 in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Thunder: None reported
Warriors: Stephen Curry, (OUT – Knee); Draymond Green, (OUT – Suspension)
Thunder projections:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG: 53.4 FPTS (28.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.9 ast)
Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF: 31.9 FPTS (17.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.5 ast)
Chet Holmgren, PF/C: 25.7 FPTS (11.9 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.0 blk)
Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 24.9 FPTS (11.8 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.3 ast)
Luguentz Dort, SG/SF: 23.6 FPTS (11.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.4 ast)
Kenrich Williams, SF: 19.4 FPTS (8.0 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.5 ast)
Cason Wallace, PG/SG: 15.2 FPTS (7.9 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.3 ast)
Warriors projections:
Klay Thompson, SG/SF: 32.5 FPTS (20.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.4 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Chris Paul, PG: 31.5 FPTS (12.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 6.5 ast)
Andrew Wiggins, SF/PF: 23.6 FPTS (16.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.6 ast)
Dario Saric, PF: 23.1 FPTS (10.9 pts, 7.6 reb, 1.3 ast)
Kevon Looney, PF/C: 22.4 FPTS (8.1 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.3 ast)
Jonathan Kuminga, PF: 19.8 FPTS (14.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.2 ast)
Moses Moody, SG: 15.5 FPTS (7.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.3 ast)