Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Wednesday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 9 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Defending DeMar: Did the Raptors release a blueprint to defending their former star in DeMar DeRozan? The two teams played a back-to-back on Sunday/Monday and the All Star managed just 15 shots in 73 minutes due to relentless double teams. You’re not sitting him, but fading in the DFS and prop markets makes sense until we see him adjust.
Big Road Favorites: There are a handful of instances in which the away team is favored by at least five points tonight … what’s the angle? The ATS numbers since the beginning of last season are as close to neutral as you can get, but the favored team has won outright 73.4% of the time, so that’s a starting point. If you don’t want to lay the juice to do that, consider the overs, as they are coming through in 57.4% of such games.
Can New York Top(pin) Brooklyn?: The Nets are favored in what equates to a coin toss game tonight, so it’s reasonable to think this game could go either way. In six of seven Brooklyn losses this season, the opposition has shot at least 40% from deep, a worthwhile note when you consider that Obi Toppin is shooting 41.2% from 3 since the All Star Break. He seems to be growing into a slightly more impactful role, so if there is a time to buy before the props jump or his fantasy value takes off, it’s now.
Experiencing Evolution?: Has Russell Westbrook figured out his role? In October, he averaged 2.8 field goal attempts per assist, a number that has dipped to 1.7 through four November games. This helps his fantasy value as it lessens his impact on your percentages and helps in the “true” point guard numbers. We will get to see if this new version of Westbrook is here to stay tonight against a Clippers team that made him into a jump shooter In their first meeting (0-11 from the field, 0-6 from 3). If his mindset has changed, he’s attacking the basket more and that gives him DFS upside and a potential assists prop target.
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Kawhi and the Clips: The fantasy fallout to Kawhi Leonard‘s continued absence due to a knee ailment isn’t always easy to read. Deep rotations can be hard to decipher. On the Clippers, minutes and responsibilities are shared throughout a long list of capable wings. One unexpected boost has been to center Ivica Zubac, who is somehow still a free agent in nearly a third of ESPN leagues and yet is leading the league in total blocks and is tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo for second in defensive rebounds. Marcus Morris (76% available in ESPN leagues) is quietly slashing for 17.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 2.5 APG over the last week in a unique power forward role that distinguishes him from the team’s wave of 3-and-D wings.
Injury Updates: The Knicks won’t have for tonight’s trip across the bridge to Brooklyn due to a sprained knee. Isaiah Hartenstein is still a free agent in 85% of leagues and could be busy on Wednesday as the team’s most capable center against Nic Claxton. The Hornets won’t have Gordon Hayward or LaMelo Ball due to respective injuries for tonight’s matchup against the Trail Blazers, aiding Kelly Oubre’s fantasy stock for yet another game. For Toronto, Pascal Siakam remains sidelined by a groin injury, with Precious Achiuwa (93% available) likely to see an uptick in minutes and usage.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-3)
Money line: Nets (-155), Knicks (+130)
Total: 222 points
BPI Projected Total: 221 points
BPI Win%: Nets (62.4%)
Questionable: Quentin Grimes (foot)
Ruled Out: Mitchell Robinson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Royce O’Neale (available in 73.1% of leagues) has been a favorite in this space all season, because of his consistently high floor as a productive 3-and-D player with more than two combined steals and blocks (2.1 per game) and two treys (2.5 3PG) each night. But, with Kyrie Irving out, O’Neale has become a more aggressive offense producer as well. He has scored in double digits in three of the last four games, and also has at least five assists in three of the last four, to produce overall averages of 13.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 3PG and 1.5 combined steals and blocks in 35.5 MPG in his last four. — André Snellings
Best bet: Nets -3.0. I’m backing the Nets on their home floor and Kevin Durant is one reason why. He could be in line for a big game vs the Knicks as they were one of the worst units at defending small or power forwards last season. Durant has averaged 31.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 4.7 APG with a usage rate of 32.2%. The Nets rank 14th in points scored per 100 possessions, are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league and don’t turn the basketball over. The Knicks do not create many turnovers and are poor defensive rebounders. The Nets are 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games and there is a strong chance they cover on Wednesday night. — Eric Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers
10 p.m. ET on ESPN, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-3.5)
Money line: Clippers (-170), Lakers (+143)
Total: 219 points
BPI Projected Total: 217.7 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (69.9%)
Questionable: Anthony Davis, Lonnie Walker IV (illness), LeBron James (foot)
Ruled Out: Kawhi Leonard (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Marcus Morris Sr. (rostered in 25.2% of ESPN leagues) continues to benefit from Kawhi Leonard‘s absence. He’s averaged 33.2 fantasy points per game over the past four games and now faces a Lakers defense that has allowed some fantastic performances to power forwards this season. — Moody
Best bet: Ivica Zubac over 21.5 points + rebounds. Zubac is manning the center position for the Clippers with minimal competition. He’s averaged 10.2 PPG and 11.1 RPG in 30.3 MPG this season. In the five games in which Zubac has played over 30 minutes, he averaged 13.8 PPG and 15.2 RPG. The Lakers’ defense has allowed a high number of points and rebounds to centers this season. — Moody
Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic
5:30 p.m ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Line: Mavericks (-7)
Money line: Mavericks (-285), Magic (+228)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.9 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (72.4)
Questionable: Tim Hardaway Jr. (hip), Paolo Banchero (ankle)
Ruled Out: Davis Bertans (knee), Christian Wood (knee), Moritz Wagner (foot),
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Luka Doncic over 52.5 points + assists + rebounds. Doncic has nine consecutive games with at least 30 points and five assists. This is the longest streak to begin a season in league history. The only other players to do that at any point in a season are James Harden, Oscar Robertson and Tiny Archibald. Doncic has also averaged 8.4 RPG to go with his usage rate of 39.8%. He will feast against a Magic team that ranks 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Fantasy streamer: Bol Bol is still available in 59.2% of leagues, despite how well he’s played of late. In six games since becoming a starter, Bol has averaged 12.7 PPG (70.7 FG%, 93.8 FT%), 7.7 RPG and 1.8 BPG in 27.5 MPG. — Snellings
Portland Trail Blazers at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: Blazers (-4.5)
Money line: Blazers (-195), Hornets (+162)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.8 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (64.3%)
Probable: Damian Lillard (calf)
Questionable: Jusuf Nurkic (thigh), Jerami Grant (ankle), Anfernee Simons (foot), Justise Winslow
Ruled Out: Cody Martin (quad), Gordon Hayward (shoulder), LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Nuggets (-5.5)
Money line: Nuggets (-225), Pacers (+185)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.9 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (61.2%)
Questionable: Zeke Nnaji (ankle), Aaron Nesmith (foot)
Ruled Out: Ish Smith (calf), Daniel Theis (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Bennedict Mathurin is somehow still available in 43.2% of leagues. He shouldn’t just be a streamer…with averages of 19.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.5 3PG and 2.4 APG, he should be close to universally rostered. — Snellings
Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-3.5)
Money line: Hawks (-170), Jazz (+143)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 228 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (56.3%)
Questionable: Trae Young (shin), Jarred Vanderbilt (groin)
Ruled Out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Malik Beasley (available in 61.6% of leagues) is a streaky shooter/scorer that can fill it up when he has it going. He has knocked down between two and four 3-pointers in five of his last six games, and may get the chance to start his third straight game, depending on the availability of Jarred Vanderbilt. — Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Green over 21.5 points. A season high 34 points were scored by Green on Monday night against the Magic. He’s the first Rockets player with 10 games of 30 or more points within his first two NBA seasons since Steve Francis. Green’s positive momentum should continue against the Raptors tonight. This season, he has a usage rate of 27.4%. — Moody
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Line: Celtics (-12.5)
Money line: Celtics (-800), Pistons (+550)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 218.4 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (91.5%)
Questionable: Alec Burks (foot)
Doubtful: Marvin Bagley III (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Isaiah Stewart (available in 71.1% of leagues) is a walking double-double. He has double-doubles in six of his last nine games, and has averaged 12.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.0 3PG and 0.8 BPG during that stretch. — Snellings
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 34.5 points + rebounds. Tatum is the first player in Celtics history to average 30 points through his first 10 games of a season. The Pistons are ranked 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions and have been vulnerable to power forwards this season, so he should continue to prosper. — Moody
Best bet: Marcus Smart over 6.5 assists. Smart has had two consecutive games with 10 or more assists. He’s averaged 6.6 APG so far this season. Smart should thrive against a Pistons team that allows opponents an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%. — Moody
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Line: Raptors (-10)
Money line: Raptors (-480), Rockets (+360)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.9 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (82.5%)
Ruled Out: Jae’Sean Tate (ankle), Pascal Siakam
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Chris Boucher (available in 51.2% of leagues) didn’t play well in his last outing, but in the four games before that he averaged 13.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 3PG, 1.3 BPG, 1.3 SPG and 1.3 APG in 24.5 MPG. With Pascal Siakam out, Boucher should bounce back on Wednesday against a Rockets squad that struggles vs opposing power forwards. — Snellings
Best bet: Fred VanVleet over 28.5 points + assists. VanVleet has missed some time with a back injury, but he’s averaged 17.1 PPG and 7.6 APG so far this season. He has a good chance of exceeding expectations against the Rockets. Houston has allowed the third most assists per game to point guards and rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Furthermore, the Rockets are allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. — Moody
New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Pelicans (-2)
Money line: Pelicans (-130), Bulls (+110)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.4 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (58.8%)
Questionable: Andre Drummond
Ruled Out: Coby White (quad)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Suns (-1.5)
Money line: Suns (-125), Timberwolves (+105)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.3 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (55.7%)
Questionable: Chris Paul (heel)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Oklahoma
Line: Bucks (-5.5)
Money line: Bucks (-250), Thunder (+205)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.8 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (60.8%)
Probable: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Questionable: Aleksej Pokusevski
Doubtful: Jrue Holiday
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Grizzlies (-5.5)
Money line: Grizzlies (-225), Spurs (+185)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.4 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (64.9%)
Questionable: Steven Adams (ankle), Doug McDermott (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Ja Morant over 36.5 points + assists. Morant just played an epic game against the Celtics. He has averaged 28.5 PPG and 7.1 APG this season. Now Morant faces a Spurs defense that ranks 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions along with allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. — Moody
Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Line: Cavaliers (-4.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-180), Kings (+152)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.2 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (65.3%)
Questionable: Malik Monk
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 27.5 points and 1.5 steals. This season, Mitchell averages a career best 31.2 PPG while shooting 50.5% from the field. His usage rate is 31.0%. Mitchell faces a Kiings defense that ranks 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions along with allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 56.6%. Mitchell also averages 1.3 SPG, while Sacramento has turned over the ball 14.9 times per game. — Moody
1. Memphis Grizzlies (119.4 points)
2. Toronto Raptors (119.2 points)
3. Boston Celtics (166.6 points)
1. Detroit Pistons (101.8 points)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (106.0 points)
3. Orlando Magic (107.2 points)
1. Boston Celtics (91.5%)
2. Toronto Raptors (82.5%)
3. Dallas Mavericks (72.4%)