Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Friday

Lacking Heat In Miami: The Heat were the best home team in the East last season and are a respectable 7-4 in front of their fans this season, but they’ve underwhelmed in the betting markets with a 3-7-1 ATS mark at home. They’ve struggled to cover those games, but scoring hasn’t been a major issue: overs are 7-4 in South Beach.

Gimme The Points: For the eighth time this season, the Pistons will enter a game as a double digit ‘dog. In the first seven, the Pistons covered five times and won their past two such games outright. In those two games, Kevin Knox (99.8% available) has been the story: 38 points on 14-of-19 shooting from the field in 51 minutes.

Return Of The Lake Show?: Maybe not yet, but prior to last Friday, they had exactly zero covers as a favorite this season. SInce then, they’ve covered both of their opportunities to do so and are again picked by the wise guys to win tonight.

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Melton and Milton: Among point guards, only Darius Garland ranks higher than De’Anthony Melton on the Player Rater during the last week. This index of player value employs a standard deviation model that rates how a player performs in each of the eight statistical categories in ESPN leagues relative to his position. With Philly’s starting backcourt injured along with Joel Embiid, Melton has become a dynamic two-way contributor for the Sixers in recent games, averaging 20.3 points, five rebounds, 4.3 assists, 4.3 3-pointers, and an absurd four steals during the last three games. Melton, meanwhile, is rostered in just a quarter of ESPN leagues. His backcourt mate Shake Milton (91% available) is also due to shine against the Magic tonight, as he’s played at least 36 minutes in three straight while averaging 20 points.

GTA: One of the better nicknames in the league is Jose Alvarado’s “Grand Theft Alvarado” moniker, as the New Orleans Pelicans’ guard is famous for stealing the ball from opponents on inbounds passes. With CJ McCollum in health and safety protocols and likely out for tonight’s game against the Grizzlies, Alvarado could serve a significant starting role for the Pelicans. With elite steal and assist potential, you can find Alvarado in free agency in 95% of ESPN leagues and for just $3,800 as one of the better values of the slate.

Couple of Clips: The Clippers won’t have Kawhi Leonard or Paul George in the lineup tonight against the Nuggets, which means Norman Powell – a free agent in 78% of ESPN leagues – should handle a heavy offensive workload. The scoring guard has averaged 24.3 points during the past week and is due for around 30 minutes and 15 shots against a Denver team that ranks 24th in defensive rating. For those in truly deep formats, Terance Mann (97% available) could surface as a helpful two-way wing in a plus matchup.

— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Line: Bucks (-4)
Money line: Bucks (-170), Cavaliers (+143)
Total: 217 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.9 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (50.9%)

Probable: Jrue Holiday (illness)
Ruled Out: Caris LeVert (ankle), Kevin Love (thumb), Khris Middleton (wrist)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets
5:00 p.m ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

Line: Timberwolves (-5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-210), Hornets (+175)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.4 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (57.5%)

Questionable: Gordon Hayward (shoulder), Kyle Anderson
Ruled Out: Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle), LaMelo Ball (ankle), Taurean Prince (shoulder), Jordan McLaughlin (calf)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic
7:00 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Line: Magic (-2.5)
Money line: Magic (-145), 76ers (+122)
Total: 213.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.3 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (53.5%)

Questionable: Chuma Okeke (knee), Wendell Carter Jr. (foot)
Ruled Out: Matisse Thybulle (ankle), Joel Embiid (foot), Tyrese Maxey (foot), James Harden (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Magic -3.0. Since the Sixers are dealing with numerous injuries and Orlando will have Paolo Banchero back from injury, it’s easy to see why the Magic are favored. The Magic are 7-4 against the spread when they score more than 106.6 points. This season, the 76ers have allowed 106.6 points per game. Additionally, Moritz Wagner is expected to make his season debut on Friday, which is good news for the Magic. — Moody

Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York

Line: Knicks (-3.5)
Money line: Knicks (-170), Blazers (+143)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.1 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (68.1%)

Questionable: Cam Reddish (groin), Derrick Rose (toe), Mitchell Robinson (knee), Drew Eubanks
Ruled Out: Keon Johnson (hip), Damian Lillard (calf)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Knicks -4.0. The Knicks play at home on four days’ rest, while the Trail Blazers are on a long road trip and are currently on a four-game losing streak. Portland is also without Damian Lillard as he deals with a calf injury. The Knicks are 6-4 against the spread when scoring more than 109.2 points. The Trail Blazers rank 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Furthermore, Portland has not covered the spread in their last four games in New York. — Moody

Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics
8 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

Line: Celtics (-7.5)
Money line: Celtics (-320), Kings (+250)
Total: 238.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (78.2%)

Best bet: Kings +8.0. The Kings are 8-2 against the spread in games they score more than 113.4 points. Sacramento ranks fourth in points scored per 100 possessions. The Celtics rank 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Kings should be able to keep this game close. Sacramento is 6-2 against the spread on the road. — Moody

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
8 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana

Line: Nets (-2.5)
Money line: Nets (-145), Pacers (+122)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.3 points
BPI Win%: Nets (55.9%)

Questionable: Andrew Nembhard (knee), Isaiah Jackson (ankle)
Ruled Out: Yuta Watanabe (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Line: Heat (-3)
Money line: Heat (-150), Wizards (+126)
Total: 212 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.6 points
BPI Win%: Heat (55.9%)

Probable: Bam Adebayo (knee)
Questionable: Rui Hachimura (ankle), Monte Morris (ankle), Bradley Beal (quad), Dewayne Dedmon (foot), Gabe Vincent (knee), Tyler Herro (ankle),
Doubtful: Max Strus (shoulder), Duncan Robinson (ankle)
Ruled Out: Jimmy Butler (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets
8 p.m ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Line: Hawks (-7.5)
Money line: Hawks (-320), Rockets (+250)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.8 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (72.9%)

Probable: Jalen Green (toe), Josh Christopher (shoulder)
Questionable: Jarrett Culver (hip)
Doubtful: Alperen Sengun (groin)
Ruled Out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Usman Garuba (rostered in 0.6% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Alperen Sengun doubtful to play due to a right groin strain. This season, he averages 10.5 points and 13.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. — Moody

Best bet: Hawks -7.5. The Rockets have only three wins this season and have lost five of their last six games. Houston ranks 29th in points scored per 100 possessions and 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Even though the Hawks have been inconsistent so far this season they are the better team. Atlanta ranks 11th in points per game and ranks ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody

Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 33.5 points+ assists + rebounds. While Murray has been struggling recently, he’s well-positioned to bounce back against a Rockets team that has given up some outstanding performances to guards this season. Murray has averaged 20.2 PPG, 7.1 APG and 6.2 RPG this year. He is likely to meet or exceed these averages per game on Friday against the Rockets. — Moody

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

Line: Grizzlies (-2.5)
Money line: Grizzlies (-140), Pelicans (+118)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.6 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (58.9%)

Questionable: Trey Murphy III (foot), John Konchar, Santi Aldama
Ruled Out: CJ McCollum (health and safety protocols), Desmond Bane
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Jose Alvarado (rostered in 5.2% of ESPN leagues) is once again on the streaming radar with C.J. McCollum out for Friday’s game since he’s in the league’s health and safety protocols. He has averaged 29.8 fantasy points in his last six games. — Moody

Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Line: Bulls (-2.5)
Money line: Bulls (-140), Thunder (+118)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.7 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (52.3%)

Questionable: Goran Dragic, Javonte Green
Ruled Out: Mike Muscala (finger)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Nikola Vucevic over 27.5 points + rebounds. The Bulls would be wise to exploit the Thunder’s lack of a viable center. One of the worst rebounding teams in the league, Oklahoma City ranks 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions. Vucevic has averaged 15.7 PPG and 11.4 RPG this season. In this matchup, he could exceed those averages. — Moody

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

Line: Lakers (-3.5)
Money line: Lakers (-170), Spurs (+143)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.4 points
BPI Win%: Spurs (50.8%)

Probable: Juan Toscano-Anderson
Questionable: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Doug McDermott, Jordan Hall
Doubtful: Josh Richardson
Ruled Out: Patrick Beverley
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Dennis Schroder (rostered in 23.7% of ESPN leagues) will be an immediate beneficiary of Patrick Beverley’s three game suspension, which begins on Friday. He’ll see increased minutes against a Spurs team that ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody

Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona

Line: Suns (-12.5)
Money line: Suns (-900), Pistons (+600)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.4 points
BPI Win%: Suns (88.1%)

Questionable: Killian Hayes, Hamidou Diallo, Jaden Ivey
Ruled Out: Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Cade Cunningham, Landry Shamet, Chris Paul
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kevin Knox II (rostered in 0.2% of ESPN leagues) has benefited lately from all of the injuries that the Pistons have been dealing with. Cade Cunningham is out with a leg injury and Saddiq Bey is out with an ankle injury. Hamidou Diallo, Killian Hayes, and Jaden Ivey are all questionable against the Suns due to their respective injuries. In two of his last three games, Knox II has scored at least 30 fantasy points. — Moody

Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Line: Warriors (-8)
Money line: Warriors (-345), Jazz (+270)
Total: 239 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.4 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (68.1%)

Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

Line: Nuggets (-3.5)
Money line: Nuggets (-165), Clippers (+140)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.8 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (51.2%)

Probable: Nikola Jokic
Questionable: Ish Smith, Michael Porter Jr.
Ruled Out: Bones Hyland, Jeff Green
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

1. Golden State Warriors (121.3)
2. Boston Celtics (120.3)
3. Brooklyn Nets (119.5)

1. Portland Trail Blazers (108.5)
2. Washington Wizards (109.6)
3. Detroit Pistons (109.6)

1. Phoenix Suns (88.1%)
2. Boston Celtics (78.2%)
3. Atlanta Hawks (72.9%)

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