Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Friday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 17 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Big Game Bones: On Wednesday evening, Denver’s Bones Hyland sported a rich 34% usage rate in producing 21 points in just 22 minutes in a close loss to the Knicks. Now that Jamal Murray has joined Nikola Jokic in health and safety protocols, Hyland will play a pivotal creation role for a depleted Nuggets against the Mavericks in Dallas on Friday. Available in free agency in 85% of ESPN leagues and priced at just $5,000 on DraftKings, few players are poised to provide as much value as Hyland tonight.
Making up for Melo: Another ankle injury has LaMelo Ball sidelined for the Hornets against the Cavs tonight, while teammates Gordon Hayward is out and Dennis Smith Jr. is listed as doubtful due to respective ailments. Kelly Oubre Jr. has played at least 33 minutes in five straight with at least 32.5 DraftKings points in each of those outings. Of the widely available Hornets who could step up tonight, P.J. Washington is a productive stretch big who is a free agent in more than a third of ESPN leagues while Jalen McDaniels (93% available) is averaging nearly two combined steals and blocks this season as the team’s glue defender.
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Or Don’t Make Up For Melo! Above are the fantasy adjustments to make, but let’s be honest are any of them replacing exactly what Ball brings to the table? No. The simple answer is no and this is a decent spot to leverage that in the betting markets. The Hornets played their first 13 games this season without their star point guard … their pace was down 2.8% and their offensive efficiency 3.7% from the first 13 games of last season. On the flip side, even with their recent struggles, the Cavs boast the sixth best defense and the fourth slowest moving offense. One step further: the Cavs have allowed under 1.1 points per possession in four of five home games (compared to just three of nine on the road). Fewer possessions and less per possession upside has Charlotte’s modest point projection of 105 on the high end of projectable outcomes.
Miami Max: The Heat won’t have Tyler Herro in the lineup tonight against the Wizards due to a lingering ankle injury, vaulting guard Max Strus into a more prominent perimeter scoring role for Miami. Strus, a free agent in nearly 80% of ESPN leagues, has averaged 16.9 PPG, 3.4 3PG, and 1.3 SPG during his last eight games, seven of them starts.
Weekend Waivers: Get ahead of the crowd by securing a few rising fantasy free agents. The key name being Jaren Jackson Jr., who is available for the price of a roster spot in 45% of leagues despite looking spry in his return from injury a few nights back. Jackson swatted five shots and took 14 shots in 25 minutes of run, signaling the potential for some big lines in the games ahead, including tonight’s tilt with the Thunder. Sticking in the frontcourt, Al Horford (49% available) is starting to warm up after a slow start and can be considered a positive fantasy value once again.
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
7:30 p.m ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Line: 76ers (-1.5)
Money line: 76ers (-125), Bucks (+105)
Total: 213.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.6 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (64.9%)
Ruled Out: Jrue Holiday (ankle), Furkan Korkmaz (knee), Khris Middleton (wrist), Pat Connaughton (calf), Wesley Matthews (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Joel Embiid, under 29.5 points
Nobody wants to admit this, since Embiid scored an amazing 59 points in his most recent game, but he struggles against Brook Lopez and the Bucks. Earlier this season, Embiid scored only 15 points in a loss to Milwaukee. Lopez missed most of last season, but in 2020-21, he limited Embiid to 24 points and in February 2020 Embiid shot a combined 11-of-43 in two losses to Lopez and the Bucks. The Bucks defend. Embiid last played five days ago. Forget about momentum. –Eric Karabell
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
7:00 p.m ET, Capital One Arena, Washington
Line: Wizards (-1)
Money line: Wizards (-115), Heat (-105)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.9 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (57.9%)
Questionable: Jordan Goodwin (knee), Dewayne Dedmon (foot)
Ruled Out: Tyler Herro
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Max Struss (available in 78.5% of leagues) is one clear streamer choice for the injury-depleted Heat, capable of stepping in as a primary shooter-scorer in the absence of teammates. Gabe Vincent (available in 97.0% of leagues) is another. Vincent has scored in double digits with at leat two 3-pointers in seven straight games, and in his last five he’s averaged 14.6 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.6 3PG, 2.2 RPG and 0.8 SPG in 32.0 MPG. -Snellings
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:30 p.m ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Line: Cavaliers (-9.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-455), Hornets (+325)
Total: 221 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.2 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (79.3%)
Questionable: Jarrett Allen (illness), Dennis Smith Jr.
Ruled Out: Dean Wade (knee), LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward (shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Jalen McDaniels (available in 93.3% of leagues) could be in for more run tonight on the injury-depleted Hornets. With LaMelo Ball (out), Dennis Smith (doubtful) and Gordon Hayward (doubtful) all unlikely to play, Terry Rozier could move back to the point and create more minutes for swingmen and forwards. McDaniels has played more than 30 minutes in three games this season, and in those three he averaged 13.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.7 3PG and 2.3 combined blocks/steals in 33 MPG. -Snellings
Best bet: Mason Plumlee over 9.5 rebounds
Plumlee averages 8.9 RPG this season but he’s at 10.3 RPG in November, and he has reached double-digits in six of seven games and eight of 10 overall. The Cavaliers are second in the NBA in limiting opponent’s rebounds, thanks in part to twin towers Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but Allen has missed consecutive games with an ankle injury and may be hampered even if he plays. Regardless, Plumlee is the lone Hornet averaging more than 6 RPG. He’ll get his boards! –Karabell
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
8:00 p.m ET, United Center, Chicago
Line: Bulls (-9)
Money line: Bulls (-400), Magic (+310)
Total: 222 points
BPI Projected Total: 227 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (74.7%)
Questionable: Wendell Carter Jr. (foot), Coby White (thigh)
Ruled Out: None (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Bol Bol (available in 56.0% of leagues) should be approaching universal roster status right now, as he’s been strong since joining the starting lineup 10 games ago. He’s especially picked it up of late, averaging 16.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.8 3PG and 1.5 BPG in 30.5 MPG over the four games since Paolo Banchero (out, ankle) has been sidelined. -Snellings
Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets
8:00 p.m ET, Toyota Center, Houston
Line: Pacers (-5)
Money line: Pacers (-210), Rockets (+175)
Total: 236 points
BPI Projected Total: 239.2 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (61.8%)
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 10.5 assists. Haliburton is leading the NBA with 10.4 APG, but he’s dished at least 11 assists in four straight games while averaging 12.8 APG during that stretch. The Rockets have a weak perimeter defense, and have allowed an NBA-high 11.1 APG to opposing point guards this season. -Snellings
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
8:00 p.m ET, FedExForum, Memphis
Line: Grizzlies (-6)
Money line: Grizzlies (-225), Thunder (+185)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.4 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (78.9%)
Questionable: None
Ruled Out: Desmond Bane (toe), Darius Bazley (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line: Mavericks (-9)
Money line: Mavericks (-420), Nuggets (+320)
Total: 216 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.1 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (83%)
Questionable: Reggie Bullock (back), JaVale McGee (neck), Aaron Gordon (illness)
Ruled Out: Nikola Jokic (COVID-19 protocols), Ish Smith (calf)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans
8:30 p.m ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Line: Celtics (-2.5)
Money line: Celtics (-145), Pelicans (+122)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.1 points
BPI Win%: Celtiics (57%)
Questionable: Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring), Marcus Smart (ankle), Zion Williamson (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
9:00 p.m ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City
Line: Suns (-2)
Money line: Suns (-130), Jazz (+110)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (58%)
Questionable: Josh Okogie (hamstring)
Ruled Out: Rudy Gay (finger) (heel), Landry Shamet (concussion)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: Warriors (-7.5)
Money line: Warriors (-305), Knicks (+240)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.5 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (72.3%)
Ruled Out: Mitchell Robinson (foot), Jonathan Kuminga (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 25.5 points + assists. Brunson has been in his wave for awhile now, averaging 21.2 PPG and 6.8 APG in his last nine outings. He’ll be facing a Warriors’ defense that has been friendly this season. The Warriors rank in the bottom-third of the league in production allowed to opposing point guards. -Snellings
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Line: Lakers (-7)
Money line: Lakers (-285), Pistons (+228)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.4 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (76.6%)
Ruled Out: Isaiah Stewart (foot), Cade Cunningham (leg)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Dennis Schroder
Schroder makes his season debut after missing time with a thumb injury, and he shouldn’t be limited or face low minutes in any way. For those worried about how he fits in, just look at 2020-21, when he averaged 15.4 PPG and 5.8 APG on a Lakers team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. These Lakers are terrible. Schroder makes them less terrible and he should help fantasy managers, too. –Karabell
1. Houston Rockets (121.3)
2.Memphis Grizzlies (119.7)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (119.6)
1. Denver Nuggets (107)
2. Orlando Magic (109.9)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (109.9)
1. Dallas Mavericks (83%)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (79.3%)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (78.9%)