Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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There are only three matinees on Saturday’s 15-game docket, beginning in the Bronx with a meaningless game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Well, meaningless in terms of the playoff picture. Aaron Judge feels otherwise as he continues to chase history. Not only is Judge on home run watch, but he’s battling Boston’s Xander Bogaerts and the Minnesota Twins Luis Arraez for the batting crown. If Judge comes out on top, he’ll be the first to achieve the AL Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. As for fantasy implications, starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Domingo German are both risky, but neither offense is currently in a groove. It comes down to team context and needs, noting today’s streaming slate is nearly vapid.
Speaking of which, heading the list of pitchers available in more than half of ESPN league and in a comfortable spot is San Francisco Giants righty Alex Cobb (34% rostered in ESPN leagues). That said, Cobb is on the road in the desert, facing an Arizona Diamondbacks club with a heavy lefthanded hitting lineup that has come together over the second half. Still, Cobb has been matchup proof as he’s posted a 1.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 28 strikeouts in 28 2/3 over his last five games. They have all been against teams with playoff aspirations at the time they played (two against the Los Angeles Dodgers and one each facing the Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves).
The next best option to plug for a spot start is Reid Detmers when the Los Angeles Angels visit the Minnesota Twins. Detmers began September with a pair of subpar efforts against the playoff bound Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians, but the southpaw rebounded last time with a solid outing facing the tough Seattle Mariners lineup, limiting them to one run in six frames. On Saturday, Detmers squares off with a Twins lineup sporting a generous 28% strikeout rate facing lefthanders over the past month along with a weak .288 wOBA in that span.
The best of the rest are Wade Miley (7%) at Pittsburgh, Erick Fedde (1%) at Miami and Davis Martin (1%) at home against the Tigers. On paper, Miley is the best option, but the Chicago Cubs lefty was lit up earlier in the week by the Miami Marlins. Neither Fedde nor Martin are reliable, but of you’re desperate, they face lesser offenses.
Saturday’s six-pack of batters in a favorable spot to fortify a lineup begins with Elvis Andrus (44%) and Gavin Sheets (4%), a pair of Chicago White Sox, stepping in against Drew Hutchison. Jake McCarthy (43%) is particularly alluring for those needing steals as he’s swiped 19 in 22 tries. Triston Casas (3%) takes aim at the short porch in Yankee Stadium with Sam Haggerty (1%) and Kerry Carpenter (1%) rounding out the sextet.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 50%) vs. Yu Darvish
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 23%) vs. Drew Hutchison
Elvis Andrus (CHW, SS — 43%) vs. Hutchison
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 13%) at Chad Kuhl
Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B — 46%) vs. Hutchison
Carlos Santana (SEA, 1B — 46%) at Kris Bubic
Jon Berti (MIA, 3B — 21%) vs. Erick Fedde
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 11%) vs. Logan Gilbert
Kerry Carpenter (DET, CF — 1%) at Davis Martin
Austin Nola (SD, C — 8%) at Kuhl
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 83%) vs. Jacob deGrom
Nelson Cruz (WSH, DH — 55%) at Sandy Alcantara
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 50%) at Clayton Kershaw
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 54%) vs. Jordan Montgomery
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 86%) at Bailey Falter
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 74%) vs. Framber Valdez
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 86%) vs. Montgomery
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 79%) at Drew Rasmussen
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 91%) at Rasmussen
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B — 68%) vs. Corbin Burnes