Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
With the Washington Nationals moving their Saturday game with the Philadelphia Phillies in advance of Hurricane Ian landing in the nation’s capital, 16 games now comprise Friday’s slate. The opener of the day-night doubleheader opens the festivities, putting the spotlight on batters with a chance to play two games. With the Phillies still battling for a wild card berth, their hitters are more likely to see double duty. The Nationals are sending a lefty (Patrick Corbin) and a righty (Erick Fedde) to the hill, so if the play both ends, Alec Bohm (54% rostered in ESPN leagues), Brandon Marsh (7%) and Bryson Stott (6%) are assured of the platoon edge in one of the games.
As for the pitching, Bailey Falter (14%) is coming off a tough outing against the Atlanta Braves, but overall, he’s pitched admirably for the Phillies from the swingman role and is in play as a streamer facing a low-scoring Nationals lineup. The bullpen focus should be on the Phillies since they’re the better team. David Robertson (52%) is slightly preferred over Seranthony Dominguez (9%). Kyle Finnegan (11%) is the Nationals closer in the event they carry a lead into the ninth inning.
One final note on this twin bill, Noah Syndergaard is listed as the starter for Game 2, so if you need a stolen base or two, the Nationals CJ Abrams (5%), Lane Thomas (10%) and Victor Robles (1%) are the likeliest beneficiaries. Beyond Falter, the streaming candidates on the docket are light. As he has just about every fifth day since July 5, Alex Cobb (34%) tops the list as the San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks. That said, with their young and predominantly lefthanded outfield leading the way, the Diamondbacks have handled righties better over the second half. You’ll have to get him in your lineup before 2:20 PM ET, but the Cubs Adrian Sampson (8%) draws a favorable matchup for the usual Friday matinee in Wrigley Field with the Cincinnati Reds in town. Sampson will be aiming for his fifth straight quality start while facing an offense with the fourth lowest wOBA this season against righthanders.
Much of September has been spent following Albert Pujols and Aaron Judge as they chase home run milestones. Beginning Friday, much of the attention will shift to Truist Park for a big three-game set with the Atlanta Braves hosting the New York Mets. There isn’t much fantasy appeal, except those fortunate enough to roster Jacob deGrom and Max Fried as cycling in fringe hitters against either is choosing poorly. However, there are intriguing strikeout trends for both hurlers. Starting with deGrom, he’s obviously dominant and the Braves fan at a 25% clip against righties. In 12 1/3 innings this season, deGrom has punched out 21 Braves. There is always more downside risk to backing the over on a strikeout prop, and deGrom is averaging only 5 innings per start for his last three games, but he’s whiffed 28 in that span, so having some fun and taking the over on deGrom’s strikeouts even more juice to an already mouth-watering game. As for Fried, he fans fewer than one hitter an inning and the Mets may not crush southpaws, but they don’t fan much against them. It’s not as stimulating rooting for the under on strikeouts but doing so with Fried on Friday could prove profitable.
In addition to the hitters recommended in Friday’s doubleheader, the six-pack of sticks in a favorable spot feature two pairs of teammates. Lefty swinging Jake Cave (1%) and Matt Wallner (1%) of the Minnesota Twins share a favorable matchup in Detroit against Drew Hutchison. The young Kansas City Royals duo of Michael Massey (1%) and Vinnie Pasquantino (18%) step in on the road against Cleveland Indians righty Zach Plesac who has been out since August 28. Since being promoted in early September by the Texas Rangers, Josh Jung (6%) has collected five homers and two steals in 72 plate appearances, albeit with a 40% strikeout rate. Even so, he’s in play in Anaheim with Tucker Davidson on the hill for the Angels. Lastly, the New York Yankees will give switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera (20%) a chance to demonstrate he can be a playoff asset and on Friday, he’ll take aim at the short right field in the Bronx facing Baltimore Orioles homer prone Jordan Lyles.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Lane Thomas (WSH, CF — 10%) vs. Bailey Falter
Bryson Stott (PHI, SS — 6%) at Luis Avilan
CJ Abrams (WSH, SS — 5%) vs. Falter
Luke Voit (WSH, 1B — 30%) vs. Falter
Matt Vierling (PHI, CF — 0%) at Avilan
Alex Call (WSH, RF — 0%) vs. Falter
Ildemaro Vargas (WSH, 3B — 1%) vs. Falter
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 32%) at Tyler Alexander
Dalton Guthrie (PHI, 3B — 0%) at Avilan
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 17%) at Plesac
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 63%) at Clayton Kershaw
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 75%) vs. Jacob deGrom
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF — 67%) vs. deGrom
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 98%) vs. deGrom
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 53%) at Yu Darvish
Austin Riley (ATL, 3B — 100%) vs. deGrom
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 66%) at Jack Flaherty
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 88%) vs. deGrom
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 75%) at Domingo German
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 69%) vs. Joe Ryan