Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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One of this season’s pleasant surprises, Brady Singer (63% rostered in ESPN leagues) continues to impress. Dating back to July 1, the KC right-hander has delivered a 2.28 ERA over 14 starts with more than a strikeout per inning. Friday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who are trying to secure an AL Wild Card spot, isn’t particularly favorable, but Singer has earned the benefit of the doubt with his recent performance. After all, he hasn’t been phased by tough opponents, spinning a combined 19 shutout innings against the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox in the second half.
Javier Assad (4% rostered) doesn’t necessarily have an exciting profile. Relying mostly on a sinker/cutter mix, he hasn’t shown great control at the big-league level (5.4 BB/9), and his stuff hasn’t generated much swing and miss. Assad has made it work, though, as he’s held opponents to one or zero runs in four of his six starts this season, leading to a solid 3.63 ERA as a starter. What the 25-year-old has going for him on Friday is a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since the All-Star break, the Pirates sport the second-worst wRC+ (78) and the worst strikeout rate in baseball at 26.6%. This matchup is enough to put Assad on the streaming radar, despite his underwhelming repertoire.
The Milwaukee Brewers have a lot going for them in their road matchup against Mike Minor on Friday. Not only is Great American Ballpark one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, but Minor has been a powder keg of late, combusting to a 5.95 ERA over his last 11 outings, including four homers and eight walks allowed in his last two turns. With a .414 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters this season, the Brewers’ righty swingers – Willy Adames (91%), Hunter Renfroe (81%), Andrew McCutchen (51%), Luis Urias (46%) and Tyrone Taylor (1%) – find themselves in a prime spot on Friday.
While Josiah Gray has been adept at missing bats this season (9.8 K/9), he’s been even more adept at giving up homers. His HR/9 rate currently sits at 2.4, which ranks worst in baseball (min. 130 IP). For comparison, the next highest HR/9 is Sean Manaea’s 1.7. Needless to say, we could see some fireworks in Miami on Friday evening. There isn’t a ton of power to be found in the Miami Marlins’ lineup, but the best bets to go yard include Garrett Cooper (7%), JJ Bleday (1%), Brian Anderson (2%) and Bryan De La Cruz (2%).
The latest top prospect to get the call is the Colorado Rockies’ Ezequiel Tovar (1%), who is expected to join the big-league club on Thursday. Despite missing significant time with a groin injury this season, the 21-year-old shortstop hit a combined .319/.387/.540 between Double- and Triple-A with 14 homers and 17 steals in 71 games. While the Rockies haven’t given long leashes to many of their prospects in the recent past, Tovar’s elite defense at shortstop should help keep him in the lineup on a regular basis. There’s not much time left for him to make an impact this season, but this power/speed combo at Coors Field shouldn’t be ignored.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 11%) vs. Marco Gonzales
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS — 35%) vs. Assad
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 13%) at Ryan Feltner
Zach McKinstry (CHC, RF — 1%) at Bryse Wilson
Carlos Santana (SEA, 1B — 45%) at Singer
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 5%) vs. Manaea
Esteban Quiroz (CHC, 2B — 0%) at Wilson
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF — 2%) vs. Assad
Edward Olivares (KC, RF — 1%) vs. Gonzales
Trevor Story (BOS, SS — 88%) at Gerrit Cole
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF — 50%) at Cole
J.D. Martinez (BOS, LF — 94%) at Cole
Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 51%) at Cole
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C — 96%) vs. Carlos Rodon
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 75%) at Aaron Nola
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 86%) at Nola
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF — 68%) at Nola
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 98%) at Nola
Josh Rojas (ARI, SS — 64%) vs. Rodon