Betting tips for Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
More Teams. More Games.
Joe Fortenbaugh is backing the Chiefs as a small favorite against the Dolphins in Germany. (0:43)
The Miami Dolphins (6-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) face off on Sunday morning in Frankfurt, Germany in a marquee showdown of AFC Contenders. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce will meet their old teammate Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill for first time since Hill was traded in the offseason last year. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has emerged as a contender for the MVP award this season, leading the NFL in passing yards (2,416) with Mahomes only two spots behind him with the third-most yards in the NFL. Meanwhile Hill is in the midst of a potentially record-breaking season, leading the league in receiving yards (1,104) and receiving touchdowns (8). Will the Dolphins’ offense under Mike McDaniel continue their hot streak or can Mahomes and company have something to say about it.
Eric Moody and Aaron Schatz give their thoughts from a betting perspective on their favorite picks for this pivotal AFC showdown.
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Aaron Schatz: I’m going with Dolphins +1.5 because of the record-setting Miami running game against a weak Chiefs run defense (23rd in DVOA, 31st in Run Stop Win Rate) that will be missing linebacker Nick Bolton and possibly Willie Gay as well. There’s also just the general idea that offense is more consistent than defense and special teams, which favors improvement from a Miami team that ranks No. 1 in offense but could get positive regression from defense (22nd, and just got Jalen Ramsey back) and special teams (25th).
Eric Moody: I do like the over in this matchup. In a thriller, my score prediction is for the Chiefs to win 30-24 over the Dolphins. The over is 5-3 for the Dolphins this season. In spite of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles this season, ranking fourth in total yards and 12th in points per game, last week’s loss to the Broncos was a wake-up call for this team. Since they are among four teams atop the AFC standings with Super Bowl aspirations, this game is crucial for both teams. There will be a lot of offensive action in this game.
Moody: I do see Mahomes surpassing 284.0 passing yards. Against the Broncos last week, Mahomes wasn’t superhuman. On Sunday, he will be eager to prove he’s still the league’s best quarterback even without having Tyreek Hill to throw to. Both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have surpassed 279 passing yards against the Dolphins this season, and I anticipate Mahomes will join them as the third quarterback to do so. He’s averaged 301 passing yards per as a starter for the Chiefs in his career.
Schatz: The Chiefs have actually done a phenomenal job of containing the opposition’s top receiver this year. Obviously, Tyreek Hill is a different monster than most WR1s, but still, we’re talking about holding Justin Jefferson to 28 yards, Keenan Allen to 55 yards, and DJ Moore to 41 yards. I think the Dolphins will succeed by running against a poor Chiefs run defense and using their other receivers with Hill as more of a decoy, so I’ll go Hill under 90.5 yards. The Dolphins rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends and the Chiefs will have to depend on Kelce to win a tough game like this one, so I’ll also go Kelce over 78.5 yards.
Moody: I do like Hill to go over 90.5 receiving yards. Having spent his first six seasons with the Chiefs and now with the Dolphins, I buy into the revenge game narrative. In his career, Hill has averaged 10.3 targets and 109.0 receiving yards per game for Miami. In my opinion, that’s his floor in Sunday’s game, not his ceiling. The Chiefs’ pass defense has been great, but Hill runs a variety of routes and has game-breaking speed. Travis Kelce should surpass 78.5 receiving yards. So far this year, he has averaged 9.7 targets and 83.3 yards receiving per game. There is also a chance for Kelce to make history. Along with Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates, he can become the fourth tight end (and the fastest) to reach 11,000 career receiving yards.
Schatz: The Chiefs rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and the Dolphins have one of the most efficient running games in NFL history. The ball can’t go to Raheem Mostert on every play so I think a great prop bet in this game is Jeff Wilson Jr. over 16.5 rushing yards. Wilson had 23 yards on five carries against the Patriots last week, and all he needs is four average carries to top this prop.
Moody: Rashee Rice over 45.5 receiving yards. Rice led all Chiefs wide receivers in snaps played last against the Broncos. He’s surpassed 45.5 receiving yards in three consecutive games. The Chiefs are likely to find themselves in a shootout against the Dolphins, and Rice could play a key role with a favorable matchup against Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou.